An unexpected assault, two weeks before Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Moscow claimed this Sunday, January 5, that Ukraine had launched a counter-offensive in the Russian region of Kursk, where kyiv’s forces already control several hundred square kilometers since an offensive in August 2024. “Around 9 a.m. ( 7 a.m. Paris time), the enemy launched a counterattack in order to stop the advance of Russian troops in the Kursk area,” the Russian army said in a statement. According to her, “the assault group of the Ukrainian army was defeated by artillery and aviation” and “the operation to destroy units of the Ukrainian forces continues.”
The Ukrainian army, which has remained silent for the moment, has occupied several hundred square kilometers of the Russian region of Kursk, on the border, since the end of last summer, notably controlling the small town of Soudja. Russia is now supported in the area by thousands of North Korean soldiers, according to the West and kyiv.
The head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, Andriï Iermak, published a fairly clear message on Telegram, without directly confirming the Ukrainian initiative: “Kursk region, good news. Russia is getting what it deserves.” Andriï Kovalenko, an official at the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, said that the Russians “were attacked from several sides, which surprised them” and caused “great concern”.
2,000 Ukrainian soldiers?
But the most complete information on this probable Ukrainian offensive can be found from Russian military bloggers, who are often well informed about the fighting. The Telegram channel Mash, known to be close to the Russian authorities, assured that “the men of the Ukrainian army are moving in small groups. The total number of their troops is 2,000.” “The enemy’s electronic warfare equipment is increasingly active on the site, which hampers the use of drones,” the “Rybar” channel, close to the Russian army and followed by more of 1.3 million subscribers.
According to some Russian bloggers, Ukrainian forces are trying to take control of Berdine, a small town located about 20 kilometers from the border. Others assure that kyiv’s troops would seek to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant, in the town of Kurchatov – an objective denied by kyiv several times previously.
This offensive would have been made possible in particular by freezing weather, having frozen certain portions of the ground and facilitated the progress of Ukrainian armored units. According to The GuardianBradley fighting vehicles, supplied by the United States, were reportedly deployed to transport Ukrainian infantry to forward positions behind a forested area.
The date of Trump’s return as a goal
This possible new Ukrainian offensive in the Russian region of Kursk comes two weeks before the return to the White House of Donald Trump, who called for an “immediate” ceasefire and promised to obtain a peace agreement to stop “the carnage”, without however ever detailing his plan. He also said he was opposed to Ukrainian strikes against Russian territory with American ATACMS missiles, a red line for Moscow.
This advance also comes five months after a first cross-border assault in the same Russian region of Kursk, which took Russian forces by surprise, a failure for President Vladimir Putin who has praised a “more sovereign” Russia since the start of the assault. of his men against Ukraine in February 2022. The master of the Kremlin, who appeared irritated on Russian television in August in the wake of the Ukrainian assault, had called on his troops to “push back the enemy” outside Russia. “The enemy will certainly receive a response worthy of the name,” he swore.
kyiv’s objectives were then to force Moscow to redeploy its troops, to attack the eastern front, towards this new front installed on Russian soil, in addition to strengthening its position at the negotiating table before possible talks on peace.
At the end of November, a highly placed source within the Ukrainian general staff stressed that Ukraine will remain in the Russian region of Kursk “as long as it is of interest”, specifying that it still controls “around 800 km2”, compared to nearly 1,400 km2 at the “maximum” of the assault launched in August. But if the Ukrainian army still remains very present in Russia, the main expected effect has not taken place and Russian forces have been advancing on the eastern front since the fall at a speed not seen since March 2022.