From Dunkirk to Biarritz, French maternity wards are making the same observation: the cries of babies just out of the womb are fewer and fewer. An observation highlighted by the demographic report for the year 2023 published this Tuesday, January 16 by INSEE. The number of births fell by almost 6.6% compared to 2022, a year already marked by a historically low level. Concretely, 678,000 babies were born in France last year, almost 20% less than in 2010, the year of the last peak in births. And the female fertility rate plummets to 1.68 children per woman (compared to 1.79 the previous year). Since the Second World War, this indicator has never been so low, except in 1993 and 1994. Worse, the decline has been uninterrupted for eighteen months, and has even been continuous since 2011, with only one rebound in 2021 after the confinements. linked to Covid-19. Good news, however: in 2023, 631,000 people died in France, or 6.5% less than in 2022, in particular due to the absence of an epidemic wave of Sars-CoV-2 or deadly seasonal flu.
Once this observation has been made, the time comes to ask questions: is France experiencing a demographic crisis? And how far can this drop in the birth rate go? Certainly, our country remains the champion of fertility on the European continent, and even more widely in the Western world. But we are getting closer to our neighbors. For Gilles Pison, professor emeritus at the National Museum of Natural History and advisor to the management of the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED), there is however no reason to be overly concerned at this stage: ” We are observing a general decline in births in Europe, but we are not yet at the level of Spain or Italy where we are around 1.2 children per woman. In reality, we are observing a tightening of the rates of fertility between countries.
Furthermore, the demographer insists on the fact that the fall observed since 2010 “is not new, although it is significant”. “The number of births fluctuates from one year to the next with periods of decline and others of increase. Between 1980 and 1993, for example, the birth rate declined significantly, with a low in births in 1993- 1994 and a fertility index of 1.66 children per woman. Then, it started to rise again in the second half of the 1990s and in the 2000s,” continues the specialist. From there, two hypotheses confront each other: either we are, today, in a period of alternation with a new increase in births in the coming years; or we are experiencing the beginnings of a new demographic situation where women would have fewer children. “At this stage, it is very difficult to make forecasts,” indicates Gilles Pison.
Several causes could explain the drop in the birth rate in recent years: the uncertain economic situation, marked by high inflation, the context of war in Ukraine and the Middle East as well as global warming thus create a “climate of uncertainty” which can slow down or delay the desire to have a child. “If this is the case, we could see an increase once prices stop increasing rapidly,” adds the researcher. Another factor: the number of women aged 20 to 40, i.e. of childbearing age, has decreased. And the average age of women who have become mothers today stands at 31 years, compared to 26 and a half 50 years ago. For the first born, we went from 24 years old on average 50 years ago to 29 years old today. Finally, it should be noted that infertility is increasing sharply. According to the WHOone in six people is affected worldwide.
Reduce gender inequalities
The fact remains that the family model inherited from our parents and grandparents is tough. According to the National Union of Families (Unaf), “the average ideal number of children desired in the entire population is 2.27”, compared to 1.7 in fact, according to a study carried out in 2023 by Verian (formerly Kantar Public). The ideal family is made up of two children for 49% of parents and three or more children for more than a third. If material conditions play an important role in the gap between aspiration and achievement, France is also experiencing, like the Western world, a notable evolution in mentalities. Some in fact decide to have fewer or no children at all for “libertarian reasons”, linked to “individual emancipation”, comments Catherine Scornet, lecturer at the University of Aix-Marseille. They prefer to remain free to prioritize other projects. “Graduated women are those who project themselves the most outside of motherhood, they invest and flourish in other personal or professional areas,” she explains. In France, it is estimated that 14 to 15% of women do not have children at all, a figure that is increasing. This rate is almost 25% in Germany and more than 30% in Korea or Taiwan.
Can we change the trend and see births start to rise again? Demographers believe that there is a link between pronatalist measures and fertility but that it remains difficult to measure. Currently, the question of balancing professional and family life is a key element. “Effective public policies are those which make life easier for parents. But also those which aim to encourage women’s work, and to reduce inequalities between the sexes. This is in countries where inequalities are less, and where women work the most, they have the most children”, notes Gilles Pison. On the other hand, pronatalist measures which consist of giving a financial bonus at the time of a birth remain ineffective, in particular because people know that having children involves long-term expenses. In South Korea, for example, despite a proactive policy, fertility remains low. “Women know that if they have a child, family and social pressure will force them to stop working to raise the child, so they postpone motherhood until later,” notes Gilles Pison.
As a reminder, women are having fewer children overall, but fertility rates remain high in some parts of the world. In sub-Saharan Africa, it stands at 4.6 children, 3.1 in Oceania – excluding Australia and New Zealand –, 2.8 in North Africa and Western Asia, or even 2.3 in Asia. central and southern. The global fertility rate, which fell from 3.3 children per woman in 1990 to 2.3 in 2021, is expected to decline further to 2.1 in 2050.
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