There have been many reflections on the future of Russia recently. The private army of Wagner’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin raucous appearances in public have fueled them.
We asked for a Russia expert Hanna Smith to tell the most likely scenarios for which direction Russia may be heading. Smith listed six possible courses of events.
Smith is a long-time Russia expert and the former research director of the Hybrid Competence Center.
According to Smith, Russia experts consider one scenario more likely than others. At the end of the story, you can test whether you are on the same page as the experts. You’ll also see which scenario other readers think is most likely.
1. Something surprising and uncontrollable happens to Putin
Something happens to Putin, for example he dies. There may be an accident or an intentional act that results in Putin’s time running out. There is no longer any need to think about how the transfer of power will be implemented.
The result would be uncertainty about who would rise to power. According to the law, it would be the prime minister. He would probably become a so-called puppet prime minister. The real power would be wielded by someone else, anyone from the elite for example. The Russian elite has never been united, so everyone would consider for themselves whether it is worth going to challenge. If the elites start fighting for power, the deck will completely fall apart.
The challenger could also come from the leadership of the opposition. It could be the entity that would succeed in overriding the security system. Then part of the army could go to support. To succeed, the challenger would need significant support from the military.
This scenario is the worst for Russia, because it is surprising and fast, and thus can erode authority. You can’t rehearse the situation because you can’t even talk about it.
2. Putin continues, and the plight of ordinary people worsens
Vladimir Putin remains the president and leader of Russia. The power and security machinery tightens its grip even more. Power could be exercised by parties other than the president. The plight of citizens would worsen in many ways. They would be monitored even more, trials would increase and demonstrations would be crushed. The situation of the rich would not change significantly. However, the silent opposition would grow and the so-called underground activity would be activated.
The war in Ukraine would continue, and Russia would consider using tactical nuclear weapons. However, there would be possibilities for a ceasefire. However, the situation could remain unchanged for a long time.
3. The power elite around Putin get tired of fighting and move him aside
The ruling elite disagrees with Putin about waging war. We want a ceasefire or negotiations with Ukraine. The Ukraine issue is wanted for a new consideration. Power would change.
The change of power would be carried out in such a way that it would appear to be under control, and Putin would not feel that he would be sidelined. For example, his state of health would be invoked. We would thank Putin for his services and state that it would be good for him to step aside now.
The current regime would continue, but would allow for some reforms. The best time for this would be next year, when there are presidential elections in Russia.
4. General discontent causes mass protests – anyone can become a leader
The economy is weakening too much and control is too strong. Millions of people get fed up with the situation and take to the streets in Moscow, St. Petersburg or somewhere else.
In a war situation, it would be a huge challenge to keep everything under control. The more masses in motion, the more difficult. In the situation, it would matter who the army would be loyal to. This scenario means an uncontrollable situation where anyone could rise to lead the forces.
5. The regions begin to rebel, the power of the central government crumbles
Russians are getting tired of the war economy and the fact that people are being sent from the regions to die in Ukraine. They see potential in ethnicity. The regional administrations would start to pull the plug, and would no longer obey the central administration. They would start cooperating with civil society. Central government and authority would crumble, as it did during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
6. Armed factions begin to fight for leadership
The unity of the army crumbles, and armed factions with the ability to fight decide to fight for leadership. The groups mentioned above are, for example, the mercenary army Wagner or the National Guard under the presidential administration.
As a result, Russia would drift into a chaotic civil war with many actors. There would be no information about who would become the leader, or if anyone would become a leader.
Also listen to a discussion about signs of resistance in Russia:
What about Prigozhin, could he challenge Putin?
Hanna Smith considers it completely impossible that Prigozhin, the leader of the private Wagner army, would challenge Putin.
– When you look at what he is like as a person, what his background and abilities are, I find this completely impossible.
According to Smith, Prigozhin is under the control of Putin’s administration.
– We don’t know exactly why Russia uses him, but it does. This happens because he is somehow useful to Russia.
Click on the option below that you think is the most likely for Russia’s future. At the same time, you can see whether your assessment is in line with the experts. If you are logged in with a ID, you can also see how others have answered.