The Israeli ground attack is believed to begin at any moment.
Hamas fired thousands of rockets into Israel last week, killing more than 1,400 Israelis in bloody attacks. Hamas is estimated to have fired at least 5,000 to 7,000 rockets since October 7.
– That’s a huge amount. It also seems that Hamas has developed as a military organization. This time Hamas has been able to act in a coordinated manner, as rockets have been fired from several areas of Gaza at the same time, says the lieutenant colonel and general staff officer of the National Defense University Juha Mäkelä.
Israel has responded to the Hamas attack by heavily bombarding the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces announced on Monday that Israel will begin a “significant military operation” in Gaza as soon as civilians have left the northern parts of Gaza.
In practice, it would mean a ground attack, in which the Israeli mechanized force, i.e. the infantry, would roll into Gaza under the protection of tanks and armored vehicles.
The Israeli army has advanced technology and a reserve of over 400,000 soldiers. Hamas’s advantage, on the other hand, is that it knows the Gaza area better, including the underground tunnel networks.
In addition, Hamas is one of the most heavily armed terrorist organizations in the world.
There is no exact information on the number of its fighters. It is estimated that Hamas has around 10,000 fighters. In addition, there may be around 40,000-50,000 Hamas supporters.
– According to the Israelis, at least 1,000 Hamas fighters fell in the early stages of the fighting. It was probably Hamas’s best fighters, so the terrorist organization’s manpower is even more asymmetrical compared to Israel, estimates a professor at King’s College in London Michael Clarke To .
The military wing of Hamas is agile and cunning
Hamas does not have heavy equipment such as advanced armored vehicles or fighter jets. Yet Hamas managed to surprise Israel with an exceptionally large-scale attack the other weekend.
According to Professor Clarke, Hamas doesn’t even have guns. Instead of cannons, Hamas uses homemade missiles. In addition, the organization is good at improvising, especially when it comes to explosives, says Clarke.
Although Hamas’ Qassam rockets have been described as having poor accuracy and range, some of them have managed to bypass Israel’s missile defense system, which is considered impenetrable, the so-called Iron Dome.
According to Mäkelä, Israel’s iron dome is not capable of protecting all areas, and the systems are only sufficient to protect the biggest cities and the most threatened areas.
According to Mäkelä, the large number of victims in Israel in the first days of the attack is explained by the fact that most of the Hamas rockets fell 5-10 kilometers away from the Gaza border.
– The iron dome does not extend to this area. There was also no lower air defense protection in the area at that time.
Battle of the Tunnels
Professor Clarke does not believe that Hamas will be able to resist the Israeli army for very long, as Israel’s manpower is many times that of Hamas.
– Hamas will either fall, retreat or flee. This is likely to happen within 10 to 14 days after the start of the Israeli ground attack, Clarke estimated.
– If the ground attack starts, Hamas will probably use its tunnel networks for as long as possible. It’s part of their battle tactics.
Hamas has been developing its criss-crossing tunnel network in Gaza for years. The terrorist organization uses countless tunnels under Gaza to smuggle goods from Egypt.
Israel is prepared for the fact that the battle will be fought over the tunnel networks.
Since 2007, Israeli intelligence has identified the location of more than 1,300 tunnels in Gaza. Since 2014, Israel has also destroyed Hamas tunnels.
Israel has not found all the tunnels, as some of them are deep underground.
In addition, Hamas has probably built new networks in recent years.
– If Hamas decides to retreat, it will do so through its tunnel network. It is possible that they will also become escape routes for Palestinians during the Israeli occupation.
Clarke predicts that a potential ground attack will become a battle of the tunnels.
Hamas builds rockets from pipes
Hamas prepared for its large-scale attack the other weekend probably by smuggling explosives and material through its tunnel networks, MPKK’s Mäkelä estimates.
This raises the question of how Hamas managed to plan a large-scale attack under Israel’s eyes.
Mäkelä estimates that Hamas managed to mislead the world’s best intelligence country by using so-called dual-use products to build weapons.
– Israel very closely monitors trucks and cargo ships arriving in Gaza. It is possible that construction material has been brought on board the aid ships, some of which has been lost for other purposes, Mäkelä sums up.
During years of conflict, Hamas has become accustomed to turning ordinary infrastructure into destructive missiles. Hamas knows how to make missiles from light poles, water pipes and sewer pipes.
However, Hamas missiles are inaccurate. Based on statistics, Mäkelä says that of the 5,000 rockets fired by Hamas by Wednesday, 2,800 strayed into the sea. More than 300 were intercepted and only 80 hit the target.
Who is helping Hamas?
Israel is vastly outnumbered by Hamas, but Hamas has well-trained fighters and likely allies who supply it with explosives and other materials.
According to experts, Hamas could not have carried out its latest attack alone. In the background, Iran, Syria or the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah may be influencing.
For example, Iran supports terrorist organizations that oppose Israel.
– Iran probably knew about Hamas’ plans to attack Israel and decided to let it happen. I don’t think Iran has been actively carrying out the attack, but it is known to have trained both Hezbollah and Hamas fighters and probably provided weapons to Hamas, Professor Clarke estimated.
Allied relations are remarkably complicated in the Middle East, where many organizations with different ideologies and goals influence a small area. In addition, the pack is mixed up by the rampant arms trade in the Middle East.