Before 8 p.m., leaks circulated as to the possible outcome of this presidential election. But there is no longer any need to seek information through indirect means. Emmanuel Macron won this election, and the official figures are becoming clearer from minute to minute.
Presidential results near you
[Mis à jour le 24 avril 2022 à 23h46] Daft Punk’s “One more time” resounded on the Champs de Mars from the moment Emmanuel Macron’s victory was announced. According to Ipsos-Steria estimates made for FranceInfo, Emmanuel Macron would have won 58.8% of the vote in the second round. The president-candidate will therefore ensure his own succession, with a few points more than the latest polls estimated. As the evening progresses, the results will become clearer as the counting continues.
How to explain that the results were revealed at 8 p.m., even though the polling stations just close their doors in the big cities at this time? The French media do not have the right to broadcast estimates or polls concerning the results before this fateful hour of 8 p.m., so as not to influence the last voters to go to the polls. However, foreign sources, Belgian or Swiss, sometimes publish an initial result of the presidential election before this time, as they are not subject to the same regulations. In the first round of the presidential election, a few leaks were seen here and there, and an hour before the verdict, the foreign media again repeated the operation. However, we must take with great caution the results announced here and there on the net, especially before 8 p.m.
How to avoid biased estimates?
In addition to being partial, the information leaked before 8 p.m. on the results of the polls is neither verified nor certified, unlike the final results. It must therefore be borne in mind, in particular for the indications relayed on the networks and in the partisan loops of RadioLondres, that activists may be at the origin of the publications. To rely on these sources of information is to risk taking at face value estimates that are erroneous or passed through the filter of militant propaganda. Limiting the risk is possible by giving more credit to the information published by certified accounts on social networks which – for some – refuse to publish results from dubious sources. The best is still to prefer the estimates disseminated by the Belgian and Swiss media which, if they are not bound by the embargo, must respect the journalistic charter and the requirement of objectivity. The trends of the estimated and so-called “exit ballot” results can be confirmed during the official announcement of the results, but to know the distribution of the votes with certainty, there is nothing else to wait until 8 p.m.
Is the publication of the results of the presidential election before 8 p.m. authorized?
The rule is clear and strict: any publication or indication of the results of the presidential election before 8 p.m. is prohibited. Why 20 hours? Simply because it is the time at which the polls close in the big cities and in fact the time at which the ballot is officially over. Before that, voters are still likely to vote and they must be able to slip a ballot into the ballot box with a clear conscience and without being influenced by forecasts or trends. It is also for the same reason that from the end of the campaign, Friday April 22 at 11:59 p.m. until Sunday at 8 p.m., no poll is published or relayed in the media. The conditions and timetables for the publication of the results of the polls, whatever they may be, are stipulated in the electoral code, in article L52-2: “No election result, partial or final, may be communicated to the public by any means whatsoever, in mainland France, before the closing of the last polling station in mainland France. The same applies in the overseas departments before the closing of the last polling station in each of the departments concerned” .
Is it possible to have the results of the presidential election before 8 p.m.?
No. The publication of the results of the presidential election is strictly prohibited, elements are given on foreign sites on the outcome of the ballot or the trends, in this case knowing the identity of the candidate in the lead between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen . Wherever they come from, these results broadcast before 8 p.m., including before the end of the count and sometimes before the end of the ballot cannot be considered reliable, they are at best partial. The only solid results on the outcome of the ballot are those given from 8 p.m. and even then it is often necessary to wait until late hours or even the day after an election to know the final and definitive results.
Where and how to know the results of the presidential election?
The official voices of the French media will never communicate the results before 8 p.m., but other information channels break free from the rules and indulge in the dissemination of trends well before the hour. Social networks are often teeming with indiscretions during election nights with the so-called “RadioLondres” phenomena. However, during the first round of the presidential election, the coded messages and other metaphors preceded or followed by #RadioLondres were not numerous and were mainly relayed by activist loops. In addition to the networks, the French-speaking foreign media are the preferred voices for disclosing the results, the estimates or at least the trends of the polls in preview. These sources of information are not bound by French law and are therefore free to publish information on the polls before the lifting of the embargo at 8 p.m. Belgian and Swiss television, radio and the press are accustomed to the early publication of the first electoral results and during the first round of the presidential election, an anthology of estimates was broadcast throughout the election day. especially in the Belgian media.
The question is: how do the foreign media dispose of the results before the counting of the ballots? From the beginning of the afternoon, the first estimates are broadcast by the media of neighboring countries, which sometimes obtain this data directly from polling institutes. The transmission of information is a major risk taken by the institutes, which incur heavy penalties if they are caught by the National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign. It remains to be seen whether once again and despite the ban, the so-called “exit polls” estimates will reach the ears of the media in neighboring countries.
What did the results published before 8 p.m. say in the first round of the presidential election?
Keeping an eye on the Belgian media was the best way to get an idea of the results of the first round of the presidential election before 8 p.m. The RTBF and the Libre Belgique chained the publications of estimates from the end of the afternoon and until the lifting of the embargo for the French media. 5:30 p.m., 6 p.m., 7 p.m…. With intervals of thirty minutes to one hour maximum, the Libre Belgique announced Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the lead with a very tight gap. Predictions rather faithful to reality until the tipping point at 7:43 p.m. when against all expectations, the media tweeted about the arrival of the candidate of the National Rally at the head of the second round. It only took five minutes for the media to approve a new poll replacing Emmanuel Macron in the lead and contradicting the hypothesis of an advantage granted to Marine Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election.
Are the results given before 8 p.m. reliable?
The results published before 8 p.m. generally follow the trends announced in the last polls before the reserve period. Thus, if they rarely put forward the right figures, the first estimates are most of the time correct on the order of arrival of the candidates in the votes and on the identity of the winner in the second round. But no one is immune to error and relying on surveys or partial counts the risk of being wrong does indeed exist. The proof is: for a short time Marine Le Pen was given the lead in the first round while the final results of the ballot gave her second with four points behind Emmanuel Macron. Moreover, the difference announced in the early results relayed by the foreign media was less significant, further proof of the limit of the estimates made before 8 p.m.
During the first round, the gradual rise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the votes as the counting progressed also showed the fragility of the estimates and partial results. While at 8 p.m., foreign and French media agreed on the qualification of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, the breakthrough of the Insoumis reshuffled the cards and cast doubt on the outcome of the ballot . By placing himself just over a point behind the candidate of the National Rally, 23.15% against 21.95%, the Insoumis was on the verge of disproving all the predictions. However, with only two candidates in the race this Sunday, April 24, the chances of seeing a surprise scenario in the second round are much lower.
What is the risk incurred for disclosing the results before 8 p.m.?
Disclosing or giving indications of the results of any election before the polls close is an act that contravenes the laws of the electoral code. Consequently, anyone who disseminates information on the election before legal time is liable to a fine of €75,000. It should be noted that the fine can be multiplied by the number of information or publications disseminated on the results of the vote, the sanction can therefore quickly reach heights and this is what cools the editorial staff as much as the pollsters to publish in France estimates of the outcome of the ballot. The fine can be withheld against everyone, including against an ordinary citizen who relays an article or indiscretions on social networks. This is why the networks that have fun disclosing the results before their time use stratagems and other inventive codes and never repeat the figures, a way of escaping the sanction.
On each election night, the National Campaign Control Commission sets up a monitoring unit that scans the networks and all the media in search of the slightest hint or leak of information on the election results. And all the expressions are likely to be retained as indications on the polls, including emojis or even hashtags specifies the institution. If necessary, screenshots are taken to be then submitted to the judge who will decide on the sanction.