Will the country become ungovernable? This is the question that many are asking in France and abroad, after no clear absolute majority was achieved following the second round of early legislative elections on Sunday, July 7. Already in 2022, the relative majority obtained by the Macronists in the National Assembly appeared to be an anomaly in the French political landscape. And for good reason, the system inherited from the Constitution of the Fifth Republic (1958) gives primacy to a strong executive, whose transition from a seven-year to a five-year term in the 2000s almost certainly ensured the election of his party in the legislative elections – these taking place in the wake of the presidential election.
Yet in several countries in continental Europe, where the parliamentary system is predominant, governing without a majority, on the basis of coalitions, ad hoc agreements or compromises, is an integral part of democratic culture. Here are some examples of how these regimes work, and which the President of the Republic and the leaders of the political parties may draw inspiration from to break the deadlock of Sunday night’s results.
In Germany, a coalition system
The German parliamentary political system of the post-war period is based on coalitions, to the point that there have only been fourteen months of government based on a single political force (Adenauer’s CDU in 1960-1961). The current government of Olaf Scholz is thus a combination of the social-democratic, liberal and green parties.
But since the war these coalitions have generally been supported by parliamentary majorities. Germany has had minority governments at the national level only with rare exceptions since 1949, mainly in 1966 and 1982, transitional governments that lasted only a few weeks.
Although the establishment of a minority government at the beginning of a term of office, due to an unobtainable majority in the Bundestag, is theoretically possible, it is difficult to conceive of in practice. In particular because the head of government is elected by the deputies, and not appointed by the head of state as in France.
In Italy, coalitions… of short duration
After the fall of Benito Mussolini’s fascist regime, the founders of the Italian Republic wanted a system in 1946 that would avoid giving too much power to any one party or individual. But political instability is notorious in Italy – almost 70 governments have been formed since then – and it regularly experiences shifting and short-lived coalitions.
In 2021-2022, former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, called in to rescue the country from its doldrums, led a coalition that brought together opposing parties – from the far right (with the exception of the post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia party) to the left – before imploding.
Giorgia Meloni, leader of Fratelli d’Italia, has been leading the government since October 2022, at the head of a coalition with two other far-right parties. She has proposed changing the Constitution to have the head of government elected by direct universal suffrage, in order, according to her, to combat instability.
A culture of compromise more deeply rooted in Sweden
The culture of compromise is firmly anchored in Sweden, but the rise of the Sweden Democrats (SD, classified as the far right) has disrupted the political game for more than a decade. In September 2022, an unprecedented bloc bringing together the right and the far right narrowly won the legislative elections. The right, formed by the moderates of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, formed a minority government supported in Parliament by the SD.
The far-right party has become the main parliamentary force in the new majority and the second largest in the country behind the Social Democrats. Although it has no representative in the government, it is closely involved in its decisions and frequently present at government press conferences. The four parties have agreed on a roadmap that includes measures to combat crime and reduce immigration, key issues for the far-right party.
In Spain, recent coalition governments
For several decades, a two-party system was the norm in Spain: the Popular Party (PP, right) and the Socialist Party (PSOE, left) alternately held the absolute majority. But this two-party system was shattered in late 2015 with the entry into Parliament of the liberal party Ciudadanos and the radical left party Podemos, leading to a period of instability that continues.
Spain thus had four general elections in four years until the end of 2019, when the PSOE joined forces with Podemos to form the country’s first coalition government since the end of the Franco dictatorship in 1975, under the leadership of the socialist Pedro Sánchez. Since both parties did not have an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies, this minority government needed the occasional support of the Basque and Catalan separatists to pass its main reforms.
Sánchez repeated the formula after the July 2023 elections, which the PP won, but without the party being able to build a majority. Sánchez then formed a minority coalition with Sumar, a far-left platform that replaced Podemos and gained the support of regional parties, including (for the first time) the Catalan pro-independence party Junts.
In return, he had to agree to pass an amnesty law for Catalan independence activists involved in the failed secession attempt of Catalonia in 2017. This motley alliance allowed him to be invested in November for a new four-year term, but Sánchez depends on the goodwill of Junts to govern. A week ago, the courts refused to grant amnesty to Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont. The prosecution has appealed.
Government coalitions in Belgium
A constitutional monarchy of the parliamentary type, Belgium is governed by coalitions. Parliaments (at the federal level and in federated entities) are elected by proportional representation, favoring the political fragmentation of assemblies with majorities that are difficult to build.
In 2010-2011, Belgium had thus experienced 541 days without a fully functioning government… A record from which the country was not so far in the autumn of 2020, when the agreement between seven parties was finally reached, giving birth to the left/right coalition led by the Flemish liberal Alexander De Croo (493 days after the legislative elections of May 2019).
Prime Minister De Croo resigned the day after the legislative elections of June 9, marked by a victory for the right and the center-right. As always in such circumstances, his government is dealing with “current affairs” while waiting for a new coalition to be formed.
In the Netherlands, parties too weak to govern alone
In the highly fragmented Dutch political system, where no party is strong enough to govern alone, elections are usually followed by months of negotiations (an average of 103 days since 1946) to form a government, during which the outgoing cabinet handles day-to-day business.
It even took 271 days to form Mark Rutte’s last right-center coalition government in 2021, a record. The current coalition agreement, led by Geert Wilders’ far-right, was reached in May, almost six months after the election. In late June, former Dutch intelligence chief Dick Schoof was sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands, leading a right-wing coalition government tasked with implementing the country’s “strictest immigration policy ever seen.”
Consensus usually allows for a majority government coalition to be formed. But in 2010-2012, the first centre-right coalition government formed by Mark Rutte did not have a majority in parliament and had to contend with outside support from Mr Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV).
In France, the political situation remains uncertain for the moment. Emmanuel Macron asked Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who came to present his resignation, on Monday, July 8, to stay “for the time being in order to ensure the stability of the country,” according to the Elysée. For its part, the left-wing New Popular Front, which came out on top, announced that it would designate a consensual figure, with the aim of running for Matignon.