Good for M and SD – but bad for the time side

2025 has so far been characterized by continued concern in the outside world. Among other things, with increasingly frequent suspected hybrid attacks in Sweden’s vicinity, for example against underwater cables in the Baltic Sea. And a newly installed president of the White House who not only questions US support for Kiev, NATO and its allies – in the case of Greenland Donald Trump is prepared to attack Europe as well.

S yet largest party

In domestic politics, turbulent times usually lead to voters being drawn to the larger parties and that trend is also visible in Novus January measurement for TV4 News. Despite a loss of 0.8 percentage points since the last survey, the Social Democrats are still clearly the largest by 33.8 percent.

The Swedish Democrats increase 0.5 percentage points to 20.3 and thus become the second largest, albeit by minimal margin – 0.2 percentage points – to the Moderates’ 20.1 percent.

Novus also wants to primarily emphasize the Prime Minister’s Positive Trend, where M, albeit in small steps, is now increasing for the third measurement in a row. Opinion expert Hjalmar Strid points to the party’s high confidence in legal issues and migration.

The citizen issue creates an increase

– This time, there is probably a lot of explanation in the citizen issue, where they have now progressed with tougher rules about being a Swedish citizen. It is something that we can see tending to move other right -blocked parties to the Moderates. They pick up voters from KD and L, says Hjalmar Strid, opinion expert Novus.

Both small parties thus fall further below the four per cent barrier. L decreases 0.6 percentage points to 2.8 percent and KD by a full percentage point to 2.6 percent.

KD’s loss is the biggest change in the measurement, where all changes are within the margin of error. With its January figure, KD touches its lowest level so far during the term of office, so low, KD’s support has previously only been in October 2023.

The time parties back in full

In its entirety, the time parties back down by 0.8 percentage points to 45.8, while the opposition increases by 0.6 to 52.6. As September 2026 approaches, concerns are expected to gradually increase within the time parties for L and KD as the weak links in the attempts to form a new majority even after the next parliamentary election. Support voting will of course be an opportunity, but these low opinion support emphasizes the risk that several percent can fall away in a battle if L and KD will not enter the Riksdag.

As far as KD is concerned, the loss may be related to Ebba Busch in its role as Minister of Energy has become a symbol of the electricity prices that many voters feel directly in their wallets, not least when, as earlier last winter, they rushed in record speed. The crowded Busch then handled the criticism by attacking Germany.

Hard to win the energy issue

She has also received publicity by setting up in several longer interviews, but the weak opinion support shows that the party has difficulty in winning the energy issue, and overall to get attention in the areas where their trust is actually stronger, such as healthcare and elderly care.

So even though the Moderates can be pleased for their own part, the whole goes against the party. The survey still shows no signs that the crisis surrounding the national security adviser as well as Ulf Kristersson’s childhood friend Henrik Landerholm has so far adversely affected the party, although it also led to strong criticism of the management within the party.

Can lead to more disclosures

The voter support is rarely affected by personal scandals, it remains to be seen if this becomes an exception when it is after all about Sweden’s security and ability to handle the increasingly concerned outside world – which the Moderates during this term also made one of their major prestige projects to show that It can handle through the establishment of a national security adviser.

Landerholm has now been given that assignment, but Säpo’s newly started investigation into suspected springlessness with secret task has the potential to lead to new difficult revelations later on. But so far, the uncertain world seems to benefit M.

A total of 2358 people were asked in the survey conducted between 13 and 24 January.