Global warming: the IPCC points to our “mal-adaptation” to a rapidly changing world

Last August, the section devoted to the scientific bases of the sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed it. Our responsibility in the ongoing global warming is ” unequivocal “. And today, the section devoted to consequences of this warming and the means of adapting to it underlines the threat “serious and growing” who “is not hiding around the corner, but is already affecting the lives of millions of people around the world”.

The publication is the result of the work of some 270 authors from 67 countries. The concentrate of more than 34,000 scientific publications. A concentrate which shows that a global warming of ” only “ some 1.1°C is already causing dangerous disruptions to our environment and our societies. Between 3.3 and 3.6 billion people live in regions considered highly vulnerable to climate change.

In all regions of the world, heat extremes cause deaths. The Forest fires cause an increase in respiratory diseases. The floods advance the cholera. And even the mental health of populations does not seem to want to be spared. Agricultural production and the nutritional quality of crops are undermined. Species migrate towards the poles or at altitude. Ocean acidification continues. The ice cream is melting.

heat waves, droughts, floods. With global warming of 1.5°C, climatic hazards will increase. And become even more extreme. In the matter, the games seem already made. Because we may already have emitted too many greenhouse gases not to reach this limit. But if warming continues beyond that, some consequences will become irreversible, say experts.

Nature at the heart of adaptation

“Half measures are no longer possible”, commented Hoesung Lee, President of the IPCC, on the occasion of the publication of the report. Measures, of course, of drastic reduction of our greenhouse gas emissions. But also, measures to adapt to climate change. Measures on which this second part of the sixth IPCC report sheds new light. In particular, it highlights the potential of nature to limit climate risks while improving the quality of life on Earth.

“Healthy ecosystems are more resilient to climate change and provide vital services like food and drinking watersays Hans-Otto Pörtner, co-chair of IPCC Working Group II. By restoring degraded ecosystems and effectively and equitably conserving 30-50% of terrestrial, ocean and freshwater habitats, society will benefit from nature’s ability to absorb and store carbon and we will have faster access to sustainable development. But political will and adequate funding are essential.” A way also certainly to fill the “widening gaps between the action taken and what is needed to deal with growing risks”. Especially among low-income populations.

This latest IPCC report also notes as never before to what extent the weather, biodiversity and human populations are interconnected. By further integrating the natural, social and economic sciences. And noting that climate change also interacts with various global trends such as unsustainable use of natural resources, increasing urbanization, social inequalities, loss and damage caused by extreme events and a pandemic, which undermine development future. “Our assessment clearly shows that to address these different challenges, everyone — governments, the private sector, civil society — must work together”says Debra Roberts, co-chair of IPCC Working Group II.

Beware of maladjustment

The report also raises the issue of maladjustment. Measures that can turn out to be completely counterproductive. According to experts, there are “increasing evidence in many sectors and regions of the world”. “We have to understand that the world we live in is not the one we will live in 5 or 10 years from now. The adaptations that seem right to us today might not be the right ones in the very near future. And we need even more knowledge to prevent us from making bad choices., points out Debra Roberts. This is an example of measures that meet immediate food needs without worrying about their effect on soil quality, for example. Or those that lead to building a dike to protect a region from the sea ​​level risebringing with it an uncontrolled development of the area.

This is why experts today are calling for us to no longer think in terms of simple sustainable developmentbut really in terms of development resilient in the face of climate change. Which adds to the sustainable development objectives the idea of ​​reducing climate risk, reducing our emissions greenhouse gas emissions and protection of biodiversity. Because even the adaptation measures imagined today will have their limits. Above 1.5°C, some natural solutions will no longer work. “The ball is in our court”concludes Hans-Otto Pörtner.