It’s time to adapt. On November 7, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a plan to put in place universal early warning systems for extreme events by 2027. A decision that resonates with the “historic” agreement reached at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, for a fund intended to compensate for the climate damage that developing countries are already suffering. “We know that there is an almost proportional link between the degree of global warming, the intensity and the frequency of extreme events”, underlines to L’Express Françoise Vimeux, director of research at the Institute of Research for Development .
In order to limit damage, the action plan amounting to more than 3 billion dollars aims to ensure that within five years, the entire world population will be protected by an early warning network for weather disasters. “Vulnerable communities in areas sensitive to global warming are taken aback by cascading climatic disasters, without any means of preventive warning,” commented the UN Secretary General in early November. Although COP27 shows a very contrasting record in the fight against global warming, it was an opportunity for Antonio Guterres to recall some quantified realities: “the populations of Africa, South Asia, Central and South America , and residents of small island states are 15 times more likely to die in a climate catastrophe.”
Last March, he announced an ambitious goal: that every person on Earth be, within five years, warned of the imminence of the danger at the approach of torrential rains, cyclones or other of these weather events. extremes that are becoming more frequent and powerful due to global warming. “The impacts of climate change are intensifying and spreading to all territories, with greater vulnerability for poor countries”, notes Françoise Vimeux, adding that warning systems “simply” make it possible to save lives. Same story from the side of Petteri Taalas, Secretary General of the WMO, who drew up this action plan. “It is enough to report the arrival of a dangerous phenomenon 24 hours in advance to reduce the ensuing damage by 30%”, he detailed.
Half of the countries lack preparation
Developing countries are not necessarily more vulnerable in terms of climate but, due to their economic situation, experience more difficulties in recovering from an extreme event. “If we take the example of Cyclone Ian in October 2022 in Florida, the human impact was low because the population evacuated in time and repairs are underway. In Pakistan, during the torrential floods this summer, people did not have the same ability to leave. And today, the repair is very complex. There are not the same insurance systems”, illustrates Françoise Vimeux.
Less than half of least developed states, and only a third of small island developing states, have a multi-hazard early warning system, according to a recent report by WMO and the Office for Disaster Risk Reduction of ONU. In such a context, the 3.1 billion dollars that remains to be financed within the framework of the hoped-for increase in financing linked to adaptation to the impacts of global warming would be intended for four sectors: better knowledge of disaster risks, the establishment of risk monitoring services and warning, capacity building to act on the ground and the transmission of information on the risks to the people who need it.
“It is very complicated for developing countries to install a weather station. This has a certain cost and maintenance costs must also be taken into account”, explains Françoise Vimeux. During the Egyptian COP, some countries promised to get their hands dirty: the United States, the Nordic countries and even Spain. Setting up risk monitoring and early warning services alone costs $1.1 billion, according to the WMO. The interest is to collect more data, which means covering a wider range of regions and more dangerous events.
Train more meteorologists
“We must develop the observation network, in particular by increasing the coverage of satellites. To this is added the training of meteorologists and forecasters according to the needs of the country. Some States do not even have public weather organizations. “, develops Karine Durand, specialist in extreme weather phenomena. Another important aspect is the transmission of risk information so that it reaches all those who need it. The WMO estimates its cost at $550 million. “In South Africa, there are means of forecasting but part of the population does not have access to the internet and is not informed of climatic events. Communication channels must be developed”, adds Karine Durand.
Investing in warning systems would pay off, according to the Global Commission on Adaptation. According to her calculations, she estimated that by spending 800 million dollars for such systems in developing countries, between 3 and 16 billion losses would be avoided each year. Beyond the financial question, the logistical and security problems in this region of the world can also constitute a brake. “In some poor countries, weather stations can be looted. Most work with solar panels which can have a very short residence time on site”, specifies Françoise Vimeux.
Early warning systems are often seen as a “low-hanging fruit” climate change adaptation measure. They are considered a rather cheap and effective means of safeguarding people and property from extreme hazards. “We can act more easily on the adaptation side, even if the mitigation of global warming should not be neglected”, indicates Karine Durand. Among the models taken as an example, “the United States has an advanced warning system in the global network, because it has the most extreme weather in the world”.
Regarding France, the summer of 2022 has shown that there is still room for maneuver to anticipate climatic upheavals such as drought and high heat, although there is an improvement. “Since the heat wave of 2000, alert systems have been set up by Météo France with color levels for heat waves, floods, avalanches…”, answers Françoise Vimeux. This does not rule out the existence of uncertainties associated with forecasts, as was the case in Corsica this summer. Sometimes certain events are even impossible to predict. “The smaller the spatial scale, the more difficult the event will be to predict. I am thinking in particular of a tornado or a thunderstorm which are very complex and small-scale processes”, concludes the specialist.