The number of annual “heat days” in Oxford and Elgin counties – when temperatures exceed 32 C – could increase from the current single-digit level to more than 50 in the 2080s, a new report says.
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Southwestern Public Health – the health unit for Oxford and Elgin counties including St. Thomas and Woodstock – worked with the University of Waterloo’s Climate Institute to assess how climate change could affect the region.
In a worst-case scenario, projections indicate that by the 2080s more than 50 days annually could have temperatures exceeding 32 C in the region.
Sourcing figures from Climate Data Canada, the report says if climate change goes unchecked, Oxford County could have 55 days a year when the temperature exceeds 32 C in the 2080s, compared with the current baseline of three days a year.
Similarly, the report says Elgin County and St. Thomas could have 51 heat days a year in the same decade, compared with the current baseline of two days a year.
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The Earth’s temperature has been gradually warming since the 1800s, with the burning of fossil fuels that produce heat-trapping gases cited as the primary cause, the United Nations says.
“These findings emphasize the importance of readiness and preparedness for our region as we will have to adapt to a future where extreme high temperatures are increasingly common,” said Michelle Alvey, the health unit’s health promoter.
The report outlines how rising temperatures could impact vulnerable groups in the region who Alvey said “are more likely to face serious health impacts.”
The report cites Amish and Mennonite communities, outdoor workers, immigrants, Indigenous communities, older adults and people experiencing homelessness facing greater risk because of hotter temperatures due to a combination of factors such as elevated exposure from working conditions, limited access to health care and language barriers.
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Southwestern Public Health is working the Climate Institute alongside experts and municipalities “to find community-based solutions that will protect those who are going to be most at risk to the extreme heat we will be experiencing,” Alvey said.
As the number of scorching days per year rises, other risks associated with warmer weather also poses a threat to people’s health such as poor air quality and illnesses such as avian influenza from migratory birds, West Nile Virus from mosquitoes and diseases from ticks.
Lyme disease, which spreads to humans through bites from infected ticks, is on the rise. Symptoms of Lyme disease include fever, headache and rash resembling a bullseye. The disease if left untreated can cause arthritis, rashes, and neurological and cardiac issues.
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Warmer temperatures and milder winters mean ticks are prevalent for longer stretches, emerging earlier and remaining active longer throughout the year increasing human exposure to the parasites.
An example cited in the report points to an increase of Lyme disease cases in the province, rising from 313 between 2012 and 2016, to 3,246 in 2021 and 2022.
Alex Summers, medical officer of health for Middlesex-London, said health officials are “certainly seeing the expansion of vector borne diseases, in particular Lyme disease.”
Last year, the Middlesex-London Health Unit reported a record 24 cases of Lyme disease, up from 20 in 2022.
Although the health unit hasn’t done a vulnerability study since 2014 and doesn’t have future projections, Summers said, “We are certainly seeing more heat alerts.
“We don’t currently have an up-to-date vulnerability assessment, however, the conclusions from Southwestern Public Health as well as other provincial authorities, I think are entirely relevant for us,” he said.
The health unit hasn’t seen a sudden spike in heat-related deaths in the region, but there’s continued concern about “heat related injuries” to extreme weather and temperatures, he said.
The Local Journalism Initiative is funded by the Government of Canada
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