“Long live the Republic”, exclaimed Paolo Gentiloni, the otherwise discreet European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, on X (ex-Twitter) after the French legislative elections. While the defeat of the National Rally has caused sighs of relief in Brussels, it continues to make teeth grind in Rome. Like the Vice-President of the Council, Matteo Salvini, who deplored the result of his “great friend Marine”. “Macron wins the elections, but does not have the numbers to govern”, reacted the leader of the League, for whom the “All against one” has reduced the number of seats hoped for by the RN in Parliament, but not its anchoring among the French.
But it was above all Giorgia Meloni who was shaken by the defeat of the RN. The resurrection of the “republican front” and the less widespread than announced debacle of the former presidential majority have in fact reduced to nothing the European strategy of the Italian President of the Council. She was hoping for a weakening of her eternal rival, Emmanuel Macron. A clear victory for the RN would have allowed her to strengthen her position in Brussels and to extract more concessions from Ursula von der Leyen, who finds herself deprived of the Franco-German engine, which has broken down. Italy is thus aiming for a position as Commissioner for Industry, the Internal Market or Competition – which France also covets. Can she get it?
“We are the only stable country among the EU founders with a strong government led by a respected personality,” argues a member of her diplomatic team. Faced with the difficulties of the French president and the German chancellor, Giorgia Meloni offers the financial markets, she says, the unprecedented image of a stable and Atlanticist peninsula, strongly anchored to the Western camp.
“It’s going to be rocky for her”
But is the Italian leader really that strong? In reality, the current political crisis in France shows that the storm of radical right-wing movements that is shaking Europe may be running out of steam. “With the debacle of the conservatives, Giorgia Meloni has lost her ally Rishi Sunak in Great Britain. And France is proving that the rise of the extreme right is not inexorable. Meloni is now under pressure in Brussels. Things are going to be rocky for her,” believes political scientist Mattia Diletti.
On Monday 8 July, Viktor Orbán’s nationalist and sovereignist group Patriots for Europe was officially formed with 84 MEPs, making it the third largest group in the chamber. It surpasses that of the European Conservatives and Democrats (ECR), dominated by Giorgia Meloni. A supreme humiliation, she had to endure a series of betrayals, starting with that of the Spanish party Vox – twin brother of her own party, Fratelli d’Italia – but also that of her coalition ally in power, Matteo Salvini. In recent days, the leader of the League was maneuvering to dissolve the current sovereignist group Identity and Democracy (ID), in which he sat with Marine le Pen, in order to promote the rise of the Patriots group.
Refocusing on the return to school
“A month ago, Giorgia Meloni dreamed of being at the centre of the European political game,” underlines Mattia Diletti. “She now risks being marginalised. She had bet on being indispensable to Ursula von der Leyen, but it didn’t happen like that. She was isolated within the European Council and risks being isolated tomorrow in Parliament.” To recover, Giorgia Meloni could refocus at the start of the school year, believes this political scientist. “Her second deputy Prime Minister, Antonio Tajani, favours a rapprochement with the European People’s Party (EPP),” he adds. This “normalisation” would allow Rome to grab an important position in the future European Commission.
With the autumn looking particularly difficult on the budgetary front, it is better to have someone in place to defend Italian interests. The preparation of the European budget will indeed be particularly difficult with degraded public finances and the opening by Brussels of an excessive deficit procedure for seven Member States… including Italy and France. “Reason would dictate that Giorgia Meloni opt for a moderate line,” concludes Mattia Delitti. But We will also have to take into account her combative instinct, which could push her to become radicalized, because she wants revenge on European leaders. She felt excluded by her partners [NDLR : lors de l’attribution des postes clés européens, les “top jobs”] and she could count on a Donald Trump victory next November, which could dissuade her from making compromises too quickly.”
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