Russia’s missile strikes on various parts of Ukraine on Friday show that Ukraine’s strikes deep into Russia’s rear have hit a sensitive spot. Russia’s attacks can be assumed to be at least partly revenge for Ukraine’s attack on a landing craft in Crimea this week.
The incident reminded us that Ukraine is capable of inflicting painful losses on Russia far from the front lines.
The ship sank, but the strike brought to the surface a question that had already been sidelined: if Ukraine is able to make significant strikes deep into Russian-controlled territories, why aren’t more missiles delivered to it?
In particular, the question concerns Germany, which has in its warehouse about 600 from the long-range Taurus missile. Germany has not handed them over to Ukraine, even though the pressure has been strong.
Among the missiles of Ukraine’s allies, the Taurus would be best suited for destroying or damaging the Kerch Strait bridge. Thus has evaluated for example, the former commander of US forces in Europe Ben Hodges.
Destroying the bridge would be a significant step for Ukraine. Russia’s southern front is dependent on the bridge. Hodges has estimated that Crimea could even be the deciding issue of the entire war.
German researcher and missile expert Fabian Rene Hoffmann says Ukraine has only been given a limited number of long-range Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles.
– Ukraine’s missile arsenal is decreasing week by week. The missiles will probably be used up within the next year, says Hoffmann.
According to Hoffmann, this is the main reason why Germany should give its missiles to Ukraine.
According to him, the German missile is largely similar to the Storm Shadow missiles delivered by Britain and France.
– Both use a so-called penetrating warhead. It first penetrates the target’s structures and only then explodes.
Hoffmann has focused especially on Taurus missiles. According to him, in addition to the payload, the Taurus has other features that probably make it a more effective bridge destroyer than the Storm Shadow missiles.
– Timing the right moment of explosion is difficult. Taurus does this very effectively.
Bridges are key targets for Ukraine, and considering this, Taurus would offer a clear qualitative improvement, Hoffmann estimates.
Ukraine made a devastating attack on the Kerch Strait bridge in October 2022. A truck loaded with bombs exploded on the bridge, and part of the bridge collapsed. The explosion set the adjacent railroad bridge on fire and damaged it as well. The blow was hard for Russia – because it took about half a year to get the bridges working again.
Hoffmann says a single Taurus missile hit could potentially do as much damage as a truck hit, even if it used thousands of pounds of explosives. The explosive mass of the missile is only about 100 kilograms.
If Ukraine hit the bridge structures with several missiles successfully, the bridge would probably be out of action for a long time. Hoffmann adds that Russia would hardly be able to prevent the attack.
Destroying the bridge could even affect the course of the war
The frontal blocks of Ukraine can be roughly divided into two parts – southern and eastern.
Russia’s military success on the southern front largely depends on the Crimean bridgehead. It plays a central role in the maintenance of Russia’s southern front. If Ukraine were to succeed in destroying the bridge, it could, in the best case scenario, significantly affect the course of the war. And a successful attack would require more Ukrainian victims.
– If things went so far that Ukraine succeeded in crippling Crimea’s military force, it would change the war considerably, says Hoffmann.
Many Russian airbases also operate in Crimea, from which Russia carries out attacks on Ukraine and makes it difficult for Ukraine to advance to the occupied territories of Kherson.
Why is Germany struggling with missiles?
The reason for Germany’s missile review is above all political. German expert at the Foreign Policy Institute Minna Ålander estimates that the reluctance to give missiles is related to the chancellor By Olaf Scholz to the views of a small circle of assistants.
– They are apparently quite convinced that Crimea is a red line that should not be crossed. Of course, this is not said out loud, but this view is also supported by German experts.
Germany has previously set “red lines” for itself in arms aid to Ukraine. Since then, they have always been exceeded and the fears proved wrong.
However, the fear of escalation still seems to be an obstacle to helping Ukraine. Ukraine’s foreign minister said in September that Germany is putting the brakes on its missiles for no reason, because sooner or later it will give them anyway. This has not happened yet.
Hoffmann also criticizes the main government party SPD.
– The main reason for preventing the delivery of missiles is a small group of worried SPD politicians. However, this minority has so far managed to block the decision.
Hoffmann says that the chancellor has managed to prevent the decision, even though some of the politicians of the social democratic party SPD and the majority of MPs from other government parties are in favor of sending the missiles.
According to Hoffmann, the SPD has come up with excuses and the party’s arguments have even been ridiculous.
– We see what happens when Ukraine is not armed enough. They won’t be able to push the Russians out. From a military point of view, it makes no sense not to deliver missiles.
There has been much discussion in Germany about whether Ukraine could shoot with German missiles to Russia and whether the range of the missiles could be limited. According to Hoffmann, German politicians have, for example, implied that the Taurus would carry all the way to Moscow, which would require a range of up to 800 kilometers. Officially, the operating range is stated to be more than 500 kilometers.
This discussion is completely pointless in the light of the experts’ information, because according to Hoffman, Ukraine would be able to strike the Crimean bridge with the Storm Shadow missiles already in use.
– Ukraine received Storm Shadow missiles directly from the British and French arsenals. It is a version with a range of about 560 kilometers, says Hoffmann.
However, Ukraine has not attacked the bridge or Russia, presumably at the request of its allies.
Is Germany afraid of losing Russia?
However, it may be in the bigger picture that Scholz is afraid of losing Russia, says Ålander.
– Scholz has said that Ukraine must not lose this war and Russia must not win. But he has never once said that Ukraine should win, says Ålander.
He estimates that Russian propaganda has been strong in Germany, and the narrative of “Russian Crimea” has sunk in well among the people.
– The German chancellor’s goal is to keep Ukraine a little above water level.
Germany has significantly increased its arms aid to Ukraine and is, after the United States, the most important supporter of Ukraine. Criticism of Germany has possibly decreased because of that.
Germany’s role has been emphasized even more when the US arms aid packages have been frozen. In particular, Germany has invested in Ukraine’s air defense. So it is not a question of Germany not supporting Ukraine.
– Here we come to the fact that Germany has limits to supporting Ukraine. Assistance is not unconditional. This is where Germany’s logic of defense is highlighted.
– Germany must definitely be praised for supporting Ukraine so much, says Ålander.
According to him, Germany is ready to strongly support the protection of civilians and cities from Russian missiles.
– But it is a completely different question in Germany, whether we are ready to support Ukraine so that it could stop or prevent Russian missile attacks.