Jona Källgren: Germany faces a fateful choice • “A nightmare scenario”
On Sunday, elections are held in two former East German states: Saxony, with around 4 million inhabitants, and Thuringia, with just over 2 million inhabitants.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party – which has been classified as far-right by the security police in these states – is expected to make great progress.
But even a newly formed party – best described as left-wing populist – can reap great success.
If you have followed the news flow from Germany a little casually during the summer, you may have wondered what is really going on. Germany to halve aid to Ukraine. Maybe no more arms deliveries this year.
And now, after the brutal Islamist terrorist attack in Solingen, parties on the left suddenly demand reduced immigration and faster deportations.
An important reason is the elections in Saxony and Thuringia on Sunday, where both the far-right AfD and the new left-wing populist party BSW are winning voters precisely on their opposition to Ukraine support and migration.
The whole of Germany is now following the development with concern, especially in Thuringia, where the AfD can reach up to 30 percent and the BSW up to 20 percent.
A nightmare scenario
The elections in the German states are important because the state governments have great power. A state led by the AfD – especially in Thuringia, where the party is considered more extreme than in the rest of Germany, would be a nightmare scenario for many.
Suddenly, the AfD, which stands far to the right of both Italy’s Brothers and France’s National Assembly, would be at the table in Berlin making important decisions on schools, police and migration.
However, if the polls are correct, the next government in Thuringia will probably be a coalition between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and the left-wing populists of the BSW.
It would be like locking a goat and a lion in the same room and hoping they can make joint decisions. Despite that, even the Christian Democrats think it would be better than inviting the AfD to power.
However, the Islamist terrorist attack in Solingen may make the AfD succeed better than the polls predict. If they get a few percent more than expected, a state government in Thuringia without their participation, or at least their support, may become impossible.
Then Germany faces a completely new future.