Sunday, February 23, German voters will vote as part of the anticipated federal elections following the breakup of the “Tricolor Fire” coalition led by Olaf Scholz. A ballot that could well remain in the annals of German politics, because if we believe the polls, AFD, the alternative for Germany, far -right formation, could become the second political force of the country . A brutal change after the fall of the government of Olaf Scholz, head of the list of the social democratic party for these elections, taken from course during its mandate by a geopolitical context with multiple impacts for a country which sees its certainties collapse one After the others.
These elections could mark the end of the political career of Olaf Scholz. At seventy-six, the outgoing chancellor, former Minister of Finance in the last government of Angela Merkel, who was also mayor of Hamburg between 2011 and 2019, could well bow out if his training, the SPD, the social party- Democrat, undergoes a historical defeat, which predicts the polls predict.
A coalition dedicated to failure
It must be said that the “tricolor fire” coalition that he directed, with the Social Democratic Party, the Greens and the Liberal Democratic Party, was more or less doomed to failure, especially in a context of energy, economic crises and geopolitical. “It was a slightly unnatural coalition, estimated Étienne Dubslaff, doctor of German civilization and in contemporary history and lecturer at Paris Nanterre University. There are indeed certain common points, especially in societal policy – these are three rather liberal parties all in all, they are favorable for example to gay marriage or even more or less favorable to the legalization of cannabis. It’s anecdotal, but nevertheless, it still plays a role. So, on this, these three parties could completely agree. On the other hand, there have always been serious dissensions, especially between the Greens and the Liberals, around economic and financial issues. »»
Public deficit: a lock that was right for the coalition
And it was precisely these economic and financial issues that have imploded the coalition. The social democrats and the Greens wanted to blow up the lock of public debt, a taboo theme in Germany. But putting an end to this lock was essential, according to Olaf Scholzto relaunch the German economy, which could experience a third year of recession in 2025, which would be a first.
But his Minister of Finance, also chief of the FDP, the Liberal Party, was completely opposed to this idea contrary to the principles of his party. And it is this point of tension that burst the “tricolor fire” coalition last November. A situation for which Olaf Scholz is not really responsible, details Marie Krpata, researcher at CERFA, the Franco-German Relations Studies Committee at Ifri: “Before him, Angela Merkel was in power for sixteen years. And a certain number of decisions were made which ultimately weakened theGermany. And that is not an Olaf Scholz as a chancellor, since indeed, dependence on Russia on the energy level, it was long before Olaf Scholz. Under Angela Merkel too, there has been an under-investment in the German army and today, we realize the negative impact that this can have. So indeed, the Social Democrats were also in the government under Angela Merkelbut it is a little too simple to say that the fault finally is that of Olaf Scholz. »»
To listen in decryptionEconomy, politics: the end of the German model?
Olaf Scholz: An off -topic candidate?
No more the “Tricolor Fire” coalition, and yet Olaf Scholz still decides to take the head of the SPD list for the next elections. But the problem is that the themes dear to him are not the themes that dominate the electoral campaign. Germany needs to relaunch its economy, to invest in key sectors according to him, but these are other questions that dominate the debates, as explained by Marie Krpata: “The theme of immigration is today one of the flagship themes of this electoral campaign, which is more after a certain number of attacks on the knife and various attacks that there may have been there before. This subject of immigration and This subject of security Today dominates this electoral campaign, even if, obviously, the question of economy, competitiveness plays a role, but also foreign interference, with Elon Musk which supports AFD actually. »»
So, although gave winner after the first debate in front of Friedrich Merz, the chief of Christian democrats, and therefore head of the CDU-CSU list, Olaf Scholz, should not be renewed for a possible Scholz government. Former mayor of Hamburg should therefore leave the political scene soon, leaving behind a social democratic party which could well take years to recover from a score which promises to be the worst in his history.
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