His Nazi slogans did not change anything, nor did his plan to “remigrate” millions of immigrants and Germans of foreign origin to North Africa. Björn Höcke, head of the AfD in Thuringia, came out on top in the regional elections (with 32.8% of the vote), ahead of the conservatives (CDU). And in Saxony, Alternative for Germany follows the latter.
For the first time in post-war Germany, a far-right party has come out on top in an election. Admittedly, this is “only” Thuringia, but it would be wrong to underestimate its significance. Because the consequences are potentially staggering.
Some will say that these successes do not reflect the national situation. That they are specific to the former East Germany and linked to a feeling of downgrading that has never been erased since reunification. However, in recent years, the federal state has invested massively in local infrastructure and encouraged the establishment of large industrial groups, such as the Taiwanese TSMC. As a result, the economic gap has narrowed.
Snacking
“The explanation lies rather in the identity evolution of the ‘East Germans’, who have built themselves in opposition to the West, analyses Eric-André Martin, a specialist in Germany. A fertile ground for the AfD, which, locally, is not perceived as a protest party, but is, on the contrary, very established in society.” And intends to continue its “nibbling” until September 2025, the date of the next federal elections.
For the moment, the CDU – the only “traditional” party that has not been swept away in Saxony and Thuringia – is the favorite, ahead of the AfD. Officially, there is no question of its future deputies “coddling” the far right. But nothing will prevent them, in their constituencies, from forming local alliances with the AfD. There was a precedent: in 2020, during the election of a new minister-president in Thuringia, a coalition was formed, to everyone’s surprise, between the conservatives, the liberals and… the AfD. German Chancellor Angela Merkel had to use all her weight to blow up this “unforgivable” alliance.
Local cooperations
Because it is especially on the ground that the cordon sanitaire is being put to the test. In a recent study, the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation shows that the AfD cooperated locally, in at least 121 cases, with traditional parties, including the CDU, between 2020 and 2023. For example, in Stendal, a town in the Saxony-Anhalt region, the AfD participated in around ten decisions, such as increasing the price of kindergartens or extending the Christmas market.
Issues that do not have a great political impact, but which nevertheless compromise the watertightness of the “Brandmauer”, the firewall with the extreme right. In July 2023, the current president of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, had also declared that he was not opposed to such agreements at the municipal level… before retracting, in the face of the outcry caused by his words. Until next time?