Germany is polarized while the anticipated legislative campaign enters its final phase. The favorite of polls, the boss of the CDU/CSU, Friedrich Merz, faces a protest front, including within his own party, since he tried, twice, to have measures on Immigration with the votes of AFD.
By deciding to rely twice on the extreme right to try to pass texts against immigration to the Bundestag, Friedrich Merz broke a taboo and caused a political earthquake. Its proposals for permanent border controls and the repression of “undocumented” asylum seekers were only adopted with the votes of AFD. Until then, no party had yet broken the “health cord” around the extreme German German.
In a Interview with Ouest-Francethe boss of the CDU repeats that he excludes ” Any coalition, any arrangement, any form of cooperation with AFD ». Will this be enough to reassure moderate party voters? “” It is very clear that the CDU and its voters could not accept a real alliance with AFD, under penalty of break -in of the party. Mr. Merz knows it and he will not take this risk “Comments Éric-André Martin, specialist in Germany, former program director at IFRI. But by choosing to emphasize immigration and voting for his motion thanks to the voices of far -right deputies, he aroused hostile reactions in opinion and caused significant demonstrations in the country. “” He polarizes and he will make things more difficult for him if he came out victorious from the elections », Underlines Éric-André Martin.
Despite this misstep, the consequences of which can be measured on February 23, Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democratic union remain the favorites of polls. Friedrich Merz retains his chances of taking the place of Olaf Scholz to the Chancellery. If the CDU/CSU continues to lead the race in mind, the hardening of the tone on immigration, in the wake of the‘Knife attack perpetrated on January 22 by a young Afghan in Aschaffenburgin Bavaria, causes strong reactions. By having a non -binding motion adopted on immigration with the help of the far right, then by failing to have a bill voted to repress all migrants to the border and restrict family reunification, it seems to have lost points. From 34-35 % of voting intentions, the CDU now increases to 29-30 %.
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Cdu always in the lead
The candidate for the Greens to the Chancellery, the Minister of the Economy Robert Habeck, quoted by Deutschlandfunk, said that he could not imagine that the events of last week ” have no influence on the German voting decision ».
Faced with criticisms and protest movements, during the CDU congress on Monday, February 3, Friedrich Merz continued to justify himself: ” The vast majority of the population agree with us that things cannot continue, for example, in matters of migration policy. The social and political minority, more and smaller in Germanyis currently fighting desperately to maintain its decision -making power in our country ».
His positions, however, divide even until the CDU. On this occasion, his old rivalry with Angela Merkel has resurfaced. The former chancellor came out of her reserve to denounce the turning point taken by the German right. “” He could not avoid confrontation with the Merkelians “, Underlines the German political scientist Werner Patzelt, member of the CDU, who believes that” chances of Friedrich Merz to get out of this conflict Are large.
Twelve Christian Democrats deputies nevertheless refused to vote a bill from the CDU alongside AFD on Friday January 31, making fail to adopt the text. “” He has always criticized Angela Merkel’s immigration policy as well as her social policy. He promised the members of the CDU to change this political program and that is exactly what he did last week “Advances the political scientist, considered an influencer of the new right, professor of political science at Mathias Corvinus Collegium in Brussels, an establishment funded by the Hungarian State.
The merger of the circumstance of the deputy of Rhineland-of-Nord-Westphalia with AFD is likely to complicate things, far beyond the tightness between the various currents of the party. Friedrich Merz should expect the constitution of coalitions to be delicate. After last week’s vote, members of the SPD spoke against a possible coalition with the Christian Democratic Union. Negotiations with other parties are likely to be tense and the CDU will undoubtedly have to reduce its ambitions. Nothing says that he can, in the end, conduct his very strict immigration policy, recognizes Werner Patzelt. “” It obviously depends on the score he will reach, but the negotiations that will follow the election will be delicate, because socio-democrats know that the Christian Democratic Union has no alternative, so the weight of the SPD will be very important . In addition, the CDU/CSU may not be able to perform most of its political program ».
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Delicate negotiations in perspective
The CDU of Friedrich Merz carries a liberal program at the economic and conservative social level, radically opposed to that of the Social Democrats on almost all federal subjects. AFD’s breakthrough in polls also contributes to the tightening of its program on migration issues. During their congresses, Christian Democrats adopted a catalog of 15 measures to be implemented ” immediately In the event of a victory in the legislative election, including the dismissal of all foreigners who appear undoning the border, including asylum seekers, and the placement in unlimited detention of foreigners delinquents. These projects may come up against European law. According to Dublin’s rules, Germany is not authorized to reject purely and simply asylum seekers without examining requests.
If the 69 -year -old elected Rhenish has always been deeply European, on this question of immigration as on others, he risks being in opposition to Brussels. Éric-André Martin does not exclude future tensions with European partners and in particular the France on financial issues. The Millionaire Rhénan, former president of the German Branch of Blackrock, seeks to place the question of the economy at the center of the public debate. Among the files he will have to deal with if he succeeds in the Chancellery, Friedrich Merz will have to work to restore the competitiveness of the German economy.
“” The room for maneuver that is his will not allow him, or hardly, to be open to questions of common European funding. He will have to produce results, he will have a strong pressure that will reduce his room for maneuver and he will be less inclined to compromise and discussion on European issues which will not be priority for the purely national agenda that will be his », Prognostic Éric-André Martin.
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