“George Washington had warned the Americans…” – L’Express

Gunshots. Blood. A raised fist. Shock. Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, July 13, was supposed to be a campaign rally like any other. It nearly ended up being a tragedy. In an American presidential campaign that is decidedly unlike any other, the Republican candidate was targeted by an assassination attempt, pushing America a little closer to the democratic precipice. Will there be a before and after July 13? How can we explain this climate of extreme tension in a country that, accustomed to seeing its presidents and candidates targeted, had not seen such an event since 1981 and the failed assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan?

Marie-Christine Bonzom, a former BBC correspondent in Washington, has covered seven presidential campaigns in the United States. This specialist in American politics, who foresaw Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 – “to realize it, you had to get out of Washington, the big cities, talk to voters directly and above all get away from preconceptions” – gives her insights on the political significance of this weekend’s events, what it means for the rest of the campaign and why the American bipartisanship is now “sclerotic”.

L’Express: This is not the first time in the history of the United States that a candidate or a president has been shot. What is the political significance of this assassination attempt against Donald Trump?

Marie-Christine Bonzom: This is a major event, of course. Historic, of course, because even though American society is violent, and even though American political life has given rise since the 19th century to assassinations and attempted assassinations of presidents, presidential candidates and other political figures, it has been a while since we have seen such an event. It is therefore a major turning point in the presidential campaign, which already experienced one two weeks ago with Joe Biden’s catastrophic performance during the debate against Donald Trump. Having covered seven American presidential elections as a journalist and two others as a political scientist, I can assure you that the current campaign is unprecedented.

For what reasons ?

First, this is the first time since 1892 that a sitting president is facing a former president. Here are two candidates, Biden and Trump, who each served a four-year term and can rely on a track record. Another historical aspect: we have never seen such old candidates running for the White House. Third, and this is probably the most important, these two candidates do not arouse real enthusiasm beyond the ultra-base of their party. The primaries that ended in June were marked by very low turnout rates. They ended in general indifference. Biden and Trump have comparable and high unfavorable opinion rates. Americans do not like them very much. All this in an unprecedented context since Gallup Polling Institutewhich studies the issue every year, indicates that the majority of American voters now consider themselves independents and no longer Republicans or Democrats.

How can the events in Butler influence the rest of the campaign? Will Donald Trump try to exploit them to his advantage?

In an American presidential campaign, a candidate would be considered at fault or negligent if he or she did not exploit all events, including crises. If it had been Joe Biden who had been targeted by an assassination attempt, his team would be actively working to try to take advantage of it as I speak.

That said, the assassination attempt against Trump can be interpreted in different ways by the electorate. First, it will further strengthen Trump’s base. They had little need of it. They were already extremely mobilized, much more than the Democratic base. On the other hand, what is at stake are, on the one hand, moderate Republican voters, those who voted for Nikki Haley during the primaries, and on the other hand, independent voters, that is to say, those who do not identify with either the Republican or the Democratic parties. They are the ones who decide victory or defeat in a presidential election. In 2020, independents voted overwhelmingly for Biden. This year, and even before the two major events we have just discussed, the majority of independent voters were planning to vote for Trump.

However, independent voters are not a monolithic bloc. There are people among them who were still hesitant and for whom the assassination attempt against Trump will seal a vote for the latter. These are notably independents who will tell themselves that, decidedly, everything is being done to prevent the former president from campaigning and accessing the White House. And then, there are independents who, for a long time, have been fed up with this two-party system. The events of this weekend may reinforce their idea that the Democratic and Republican parties are harmful to the country and in a vote in favor of a candidate of a third party, like Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party, or an independent candidate such as Robert Kennedy Jr. One thing is certain: no independent voter will have the reflex to vote for Biden on the basis of this attack on Trump!

Can the events of this weekend finally convince the Democratic candidate to throw in the towel, as his own camp is pushing him to do?

There wasn’t really any other option before the assassination attempt on Trump, so now…

Biden’s disastrous performance has translated into a significant improvement in Trump’s already dominant position in the polls, both nationally and in key states. Trump has not gained a spectacularly greater ascendancy, but he has gained points. It is likely, as I was saying earlier, that after this assassination attempt, independent voters and moderate Republicans will decide to vote for Trump. Biden’s chances of reelection are even more compromised today than they were two weeks ago during the failed debate.

The political fate of the presidential candidate will also depend in part, in the coming weeks, on what the investigations (by the FBI and Congress) will be able to reveal about what happened on Saturday in Pennsylvania, the possible motivations of the shooter but above all the possible failings of the Secret Service (Editor’s note: the federal agency responsible for protecting certain political figures) and therefore of the Biden administration, in the organization of this campaign event, given that Trump had recently received new death threats.

The image of Trump with his fist raised, his face partly bloodied, the American flag behind him has been widely commented on…

This photo has an iconic character. With all these elements: Trump raising his fist despite adversity and against a backdrop of blue sky and the American flag, it is literally “picture-perfect” as they say in English, “the perfect image”. An American presidential campaign is played with speeches but also with images. This one will remain sealed in the minds of Americans and voters at the time of voting.

According to a poll by the Project on Security & Threats at the University of Chicago conducted in June 2024, 10% of Americans say they support violence to prevent Donald Trump from being re-elected. Should we fear an escalation of violence if he wins in November?

The United States has been practicing political violence since at least the Civil War. Four American presidents have been assassinated, and there have been numerous assassination attempts, not only of presidents, candidates for the White House, but also of congressmen and other political figures. The most recent such incident, before the attempt on Trump, was the attack in 2017 at a Republican congressional baseball practice in Alexandria, Virginia. Among the victims was Congressman Steve Scalise, who had to undergo about a dozen surgeries to recover from his injuries. The shooter was a supporter of Bernie Sanders, the former Democratic candidate for the White House. There is something in American society that makes violence one of the ways to resolve conflicts.

Moreover, this two-party system is completely sclerotic and rejected today by the majority of Americans who desperately want something else: a broader offer, more candidates, more choices. The American bipartisanship is now based only on hyperpolarization. The current campaign with the Biden-Trump “duel” illustrates this hyperpolarization that the two parties and their candidates have stirred up. They are no longer able to convince solely on the basis of their records or their ideas. And so they stir up acrimony, hyperpartisan feelings. The first president of the United States, George Washington, who is the only one to have been elected without a label, that is to say as an independent, had warned his fellow citizens, in his farewell letter (Editor’s note: in 1796), to what extent the hyperpartisan spirit was a poison. We are right in the middle of it today. What George Washington had warned against, Americans are experiencing today. Add to that nearly 400 million firearms circulating in a country that is very permissive in this area, and you get an explosive cocktail.