ENERGY. At the end of the Defense Council, the government maintains that energy sobriety and general mobilization are the keys to avoiding cuts and rationing of energy this winter. Update on government announcements.
[Mis à jour le 2 septembre 2022 à 15h44] “The key is general mobilization” confirmed Agnès Pannier-Runacher after the Defense Council this Friday, September 2. The Minister for Energy Transition expressed confidence in France’s ability to get through the winter without gas or electricity shortages thanks to gas stocks that are more than 90% full and a nuclear fleet that must be fully restarted before winter. However, these stocks will not be sufficient to last the entire winter season and energy supplies will be crucial in the coming months. For this, the government is counting on European solidarity, which must be strengthened in particular with Germany and Spain, with which France exchanges gas and electricity.
Energy sobriety nevertheless remains the main solution and above all the sine qua non condition for avoiding restrictive measures such as cuts or rationing. Agnès Pannier-Runacher took up the formula of the government and invited the French to choose “savings chosen rather than cuts suffered”. If the efforts must concern both individuals and businesses, the minister ensures that the objectives of reducing consumption are “proportionate and achievable” and above all “indispensable” to avoid cuts. In addition to these reminders, the government has refrained from specifying the economical measures making it possible to reduce consumption or to move forward on the binding measures that could be cuts, rationing or rotating load shedding of gas and electricity.
We had to wait until mid-September or even early October for Elisabeth Borne to detail all the scenarios of the energy crisis, from the most favorable to the least, and the solutions that would then be put in place. In the meantime, the energy sobriety plans requested at the end of August from the actors concerned must be submitted to the executive. Finally, the government promises careful monitoring of the situation and regular updates from mid-October. If the tone was for the emergency in recent days with a massive call for the reduction of consumption, today the speech is rather in two shades: all the levers have been activated to avoid the shortage but vigilance and sobriety are still in place. The message seems to have passed to the French, some of whom have already reduced their gas consumption by 4%, underlined the general manager of Engie, Catherine MacGregor on September 2 on RTL.
Without Russian gas, is there a risk of a shortage?
Gazprom’s floodgates are closed. Since September 1, 2022, the Russian energy company has stopped gas deliveries to Engie. But this stop “does not change much” for France a few months before winter according to President of the Energy Regulatory Commission, Emmanuelle Wargon. An opinion shared by the general manager of Engie who explains this September 2 on RTL that “a priori we will not run out of gas”. Gas stocks will be 100% filled before the end of the summer according to government promises confirmed by Engie. A reassuring perspective but sufficient for all that? Doubt is allowed, especially if the winter is cold.
However, the Minister for Energy Transition Agnès Pannier-Runacher assured on August 30 on France Inter that for “a normal winter, we have enough gas in quantity” qualifying in the process that cold spells could lead to “hours or days of tension” and perhaps gas cuts for businesses.
Gazprom deliveries interrupted
If France “depends little” on Russian gas as assured by Emmanuel Macron on August 26, the fact remains that the supply of gas is impacted by the cessation of deliveries. On August 31, the Russian energy company Gazprom announced that it would “completely” stop the supply of gas from September 1 and “until receipt in full of the financial sums due for deliveries”. At issue in dispute over the payment of drastically reduced deliveries of gas to France.
Since this summer, only 1.5 TWh per month have been delivered by Gazprom according to Engie, which indicated in July that the share of Russian gas in its stocks is around 4%. Engie, however, claims to have put in place emergency measures to be able to continue gas deliveries to its customers even in the event of a stoppage of Russian gas deliveries. Algerian gas presents itself as a solution, but any negotiations for deliveries of Algerian gas are a closely guarded secret. The fact remains that on August 30, Olivier Véran, government spokesperson, deemed it “probable” to use this gas to ensure supply.
Are there problems with the electricity supply?
The supply and production of electricity in sufficient quantity also raise questions as more than half of the French nuclear fleet, 32 out of 56 reactors, is shut down. Once self-sufficient, France must now rely on imported electricity to meet its needs, a problem in times of energy crisis. The urgency is then to reduce energy consumption to consume less but over the longer term. Here too the risk of power outage prolonged is minimized by the executive director of EDF in charge of the customers, services and territories division, Marc Benayoun, who assured on August 26 that despite a very difficult situation, there is a very good chance that we will spend the winter without load shedding. .
Agnès Pannier-Runacher nevertheless indicated August 30 on the airwaves of France Inter that power cuts could occur to individuals and businesses but only last “two hours maximum”. In addition to the cuts, it is the risk of rationing of energy consumption which awaits the companies which would be “the first affected” if necessary explained Elisabeth Borne on August 29 before the union of bosses. To avoid cuts and in the worst case a rationing, the government must think and present intermediate measures to limit the energy consumption at the exit of the Council of Defense like the possibility of “lowering the tension on the whole network” going from 230 Volts to 220.