(Finance) – After closing 2022 with a 3.8% GDP growth, “also in the first quarter of this year, the Italian economy was among the most dynamic in the euro area”, with a quarterly increase of 0.6% and an increase for the whole of 2023 which Prometeia estimates at +1.1% (up from the +0.7% estimated in March). The Report of Prometheia prediction, from which it emerges that the Italian GDP is 2.5% higher than the pre-Covid one, “a better result than the other three major euro countriespei: in the face of a greater weakness in consumption, the excellent performance of exports and, above all, the exceptional cycle of investments in construction, which have acted as a driving force for the entire supply chain, stand out”.
According to Prometeia “there are therefore the conditions for the Italian economy to emerge from the inflationary crisis (in June the inflation rate was still at 6.4%, among the highest in the Eurozone) without experiencing a real recession but only a period of prolonged stagnation until inflation has been tamed”. Also for 2023, Prometeia estimates that the GDP of the Eurozone will register +0.7% and that of the world +2.6%.
According to Prometeia, the drop in inflation “could already manifest itself in the second half of 2023, driven in particular by the drop in the price of energy. In a situation in which profits have remained good, and therefore there are no margins to regain, and wages are only slowly recovering the losses in purchasing power, the conditions are in place for inflation to continue to fall”.
“The lasting support to growth continues to be represented by the PNRR not only for the boost between now and 2026, when the weakening of energy efficiency incentives will produce a vacuum in demand for the construction sector, but also, in the medium term , for the stimulus to the modernization and efficiency of many sectors of the Italian economy”, continues Prometeia, also indicating how there are “multiple obstacles” in the path of “soft landing” for the Italian economy. “Thanks to the attitude of the central banks which will continue to be, albeit more gradually, restrictive in the medium term – Prometeia estimates that the ECB will raise the policy rates by another 50 basis points, to then keep them at the new levels in 2024; and that the FED implements two increases by 25 basis points in July and November 2023) – Italy will thus find itself navigating in a new context of positive real interest rates with the burden of a high public debt that has grown with the pandemic while Europe is discussing on what form to give to the tax rules, now suspended until the end of 2023”, reads the Report. “Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, there is no doubt that, for a country with a high debt like ours, the space for further expansionary policies will be limited. Having an instrument to boost growth like the Pnrr is therefore an opportunity not to be overlooked”, concludes Prometeia.