(Finance) – According to the estimates of the Parliamentary Budget Office, in the first quarter of this year the Italian GDP would have contracted by about half a percentage point compared to the previous quarter, with a very wide range of variation, between minus 0.9% and minus 0.1%. The decline in manufacturing would be matched by a minor weakening of services, supported by the relaxation of restrictions against Covid-19.
He writes it the UPB in the April economic note which analyzes what are, to date, the effects of the conflict on the international scenario and on the Italian one and how far they could be consequences of its extension.
“In March – we read – the first month after the start of military hostilities in Ukraine, families became more cautious about purchases of durable goods, such as cars, while electricity consumption and freight transport flows have increased, indicating that the impact of the war on production activities as a whole could manifest itself with some delay; the different initial reaction of families and businesses to the war is also reflected in the climate of confidence that last month worsened significantly for consumers and less intense for businesses “, reads the document.
In the wake of the tensions in the energy markets and the uncertainty linked to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the dynamics of prices has gradually strengthened with repercussions on all phases of the distribution chain; businesses and households are also revising their inflation expectations upwards, towards historic highs.
According to a PBO simulation, the war has already stolen the GDP of Italy in 2022 about a percentage point; sand the duration of the military phase were to be temporally extended by a quarter, the cost for the economic activity of our country would increase by a further 1.6 points of GDP overall for the two-year period 2022-23 “.
The UpB also notes that “the Russian attack on Ukraine had a disruptive effect on the global economy, heavily affecting the short- and medium-term prospects.
After the strong rebound in economic activity in 2021 – we read – “the new year had started with the weakening of the international economic cycle, thanks to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of Covid. The optimism, which returned in February following the turnaround of the contagion curve, was frozen by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia which changed the picture again, immediately affecting the costs of raw materials and confidence. of businesses and consumers “.