(Finance) – Nel second quarter of 2024 the GDP, expressed in chained values with the reference year 2020, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, it increased by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter and by 0.6% compared to the second quarter of 2023. The cyclical GDP growth released on 2 September 2024 was the same as 0.2%, that trend it had been 0.9%. There variation acquired for 2024 it is equal to 0.4%, down compared to that released on 2 September 2024 when the change was estimated at 0.6%.
This was announced by Istat in data review released at the beginning of September. The review reflects the new annual estimates foreseen by the general review of the national accounts of last 23 September.
The data calls into question the estimates provided yesterday by minister Giorgetti in the interview with Bloomberg in which he considered the goal of reaching 1% growth this year “realistic”. “The Istat data for the third quarter which will arrive shortly will tell us whether these forecasts are confirmed”, he added, underlining that the forecast was made last year “because our econometric models, which have proven reliable in the past, demonstrated that there was this possibility. Today, the trend confirms these expectations”, he explained Giorgettiadmitting however that now “there is an overall situation at an international level – apart from conflicts and the explosion of a crisis situation in the Middle East – which will inevitably affect the global economy and the economy of our country” .
Doubts about the government objectives were also expressed by Confessors which in a note expressed concern about the level of consumption also in August. “Household spending essentially at a standstill, sales collapsing for small shops. The picture drawn by today’s ISTAT data is worrying: the revision of the second quarter outlines a clear slowdown in consumption, and the negative assessments on the dynamics of family spending are unfortunately also confirmed by the data on August retail sales: for businesses operating on small surfaces there was a decline of -0.9%, despite the driving force of the summer sales”, underlined the Confederation.
Returning to the review published by Istat, compared to the previous quarter, among the main aggregates of internal demand the consumption finals national show a growth of 0.5%, while gross fixed investments decrease by 0.1%. The imports grew by 0.2% and the exports decreased by 1.2%.
There national question net of inventories, it contributed 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth: 0.2 the consumption of families and private ISP social institutions, 0.2 the expenditure of the Public Administrations (PA) while the contribution from fixed investments gross was null. There change in stocks contributed positively to the change in GDP by 0.3 percentage points, while the contribution of net foreign demand was negative by 0.5 percentage points.
Regarding the added value of the main production sectors, agriculture And industry decreased by 1.6% and 0.5% respectively, while i services grew by 0.4%. For the total economy, the hours work they decreased cyclically by 0.2%, i income from employment per capita they grew by 1.6%.