(Finance) – “In the 2nd quarter of 2022, the Italian GDP jumped by 1% qoq, after the 0.1% qoq recorded at the beginning of the year. The figure is much stronger than the expectations of the consensus ( 0.3% qoq) than ours more optimistic forecast (0.4%). The annual change slowed to 4.6% from 6.2% previously (consensus: 3.7%, our forecast: 3.9%). GDP has now more than recovered for the first time pre-pandemic level (+ 1% compared to the end of 2019). There “acquired” growth for 2022 (in the event of stagnation in each of the two remaining quarters of the year) it is now equal to 3.4% (previously it was estimated at 2.6%) “. This is how Intesa Sanpaolo commented on Istat data on the growth of Italian GDP in the second quarter.
“The details by components will be released by Istat on the occasion of the second estimate on September 1. However, the statistical agency anticipated that the growth it came from bothindustry that from services (while the added value has dropped in agriculture): in fact, based on industrial production data, it was legitimate to expect a positive contribution from industry in the strict sense, mirroring the negative one seen at the beginning of the year ” , the note continues.
“From the side of the requestas in the last two quarters, there was a contribution positive of the component internal (gross of inventories), while foreign trade slowed GDP, as imports continue to grow faster than exports (not only in nominal terms) – explains Intesa Sanpaolo -. We think that the domestic demand may have been mainly driven by consumption (thanks to the rebound in spending on services after the wave of Covid at the beginning of the year), but also the investments they should have maintained a positive pace. “
“In summary, the 2nd quarter GDP figure was stronger than any more rosy forecast, and points out that our estimate of 3% of GDP 2022 (already above the consensus) could be outdated. For the current quarter, we expect a slowdown, but with GDP probably still in positive territory, also thanks to the recovery in tourist flows – underlines the credit institution -. In our view, the broad surprise positive in the spring quarter is mainly due to the recovery of mobility personal as a result of the lower health risk, given that the quarter compares with the first part of the year in which Italy saw the peak of the Covid winter wave (which weighed on both industry and services) “.
“Looking ahead, we believe that the major risks on the cycle may materialize between the 4th quarter of 2022 and the 1st quarter of 2023, due to the delayed impact of the inflationary shock as well as a possible gas rationing (in the season in which consumption is highest). Overall, we believe that there are upside risks to our 3% forecast for 2022 GDP, and vice versa downside risks to our 1.6% estimate for next year “, concludes the note from Intesa Sanpaolo.