(Finance) – “The preliminary data on the performance of the Italian economy in the second quarter of the year is consistent with expectations. The assessments on the overall picture are confirmed. The modest Italian growth continues to be supported almost exclusively by the tertiary sector and domestic demand. The stagnation of industry seems to continue, while the sign of the contribution of net foreign demand changes: from positive in the first quarter to negative in the second. The persistent difficulties encountered in the German economy (GDP at -0.1% quarterly) weigh heavily. With these dynamics, achieving a growth of 1% – the government’s target – for the entire year, although not impossible, appears not easy”. This is the comment of theConfcommercio Research Office on today’s Istat data.
“In perspective, – he continues Confcommercio – improvements in nominal income, also thanks to the renewal of contracts, combined with stable inflation and employment at an all-time high should support purchasing power and consumption. On the other hand, the exceptionally high real rates for Italy would seriously slow down private investment. The growth figure will be obtained by balancing these opposing tensions”.
“The data released today by Istat confirm the slightly expansive tone of the economic situation in our country, also highlighting how the push for growth continues to come exclusively from the tertiary sectors, with industry and agriculture instead in decline” he underlines Confesercenti commenting on the second quarter GDP estimates.
“The findings – highlights Confesercenti – confirm that a 1% growth target for the current year is fully within our country’s reach and there is a high probability that the forecasts for 2024 of the major international organizations will be exceeded. And the positive trend of the tourist season could further contribute to a GDP growth that is significantly higher than expected. 2024 has also been characterized as the year of contract renewals: in particular in the tertiary sector, the sector that is contributing to the good results of our economy. On the other hand, it should be emphasized that the preservation of this moderately expansive phase depends crucially on the stability of household consumption, especially in light of the negative contribution that Istat records for net exports. In this regard, it should be remembered that at the end of the first quarter of this year, spending in the economic territory was still a good 2.5 billion lower than the levels reached at the end of spring 2023. Specifically, the propensity to consume recorded a real collapse in the first three months of the current year (-2.6 points), thus preventing the growth in employment and contractual increases from being translated into greater consumption”.
According to Confesercenti’s assessments, on an annual average theHousehold consumption growth could rise to 0.6% from 0.2% of the first quarter. A result that would allow for the consolidation of the economic trends, but which would remain well below the expansion potential underlying the lively trend of the labor market.
“Therefore, it is missing – he concludes Confesercenti – still a real and decisive recovery in consumption that requires, first of all, a reinvigoration of the climate of confidence, to be achieved through a solid reduction in interest rates, together with the implementation of interventions on taxation and work. Furthermore, interventions are needed in favor of neighborhood businesses, aimed at preserving first and foremost that role of territorial protection of shops that represents a social, as well as economic, value that is fundamental for the liveability of our cities”.