The video from Gaza City in this story speaks volumes. The pictures show destruction and devastation.
There is a bulldozer with an Israeli flag flying on its roof at the edge of the level road. It is probably an indication of war success and gaining control of Gaza.
The Israeli army has emphasized that military operations in Gaza are going according to plan. The goal is to destroy the terrorist organization Hamas that controls Gaza.
– Eradicating Hamas from Gaza is easier said than done. I don’t think that’s possible.
This is the opinion of a researcher and columnist from the US Defense Priorities think tank Daniel DePetris.
According to him, destroying Hamas is impossible because it is not only a military organization but also a social movement. Its health centers and aid to the poor with soup kitchens are part of the everyday life of many Gazans.
Daniel DePetris believes that Israel will soon realize that the complete destruction of Hamas is not realistic.
– Israel will destroy Hamas’ armed capacity.
Read here about the thoughts of Gaza’s youth in the middle of the war. “Heart in the throat, soul in the resistance” was published in February 2016.
The demand for ethnic cleansing
The starting points for the success of Israel’s Gaza operation were not favorable.
On October 7, Hamas carried out exceptionally brutal terrorist attacks on Israeli soil. The attacks caught intelligence and the military completely by surprise, and therefore the humiliated Israeli war machine wants to wash its face.
The operation in Gaza has indeed been charged with an even greater dose of fury and determination than usual.
For these reasons, the discussion about the operation’s progress and goals is also in heavy circles: What is Israel going to do after Hamas’s armed capabilities have been exhausted?
What is Israel’s plan for Gaza after the guns fall silent?
Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu the right-wing government has very diverse views on this.
The extreme right in the government has hoped, among other things, to bomb Gaza to the ground. There have even been calls for the use of nuclear weapons to destroy Gaza.
– The speeches of the extreme right are completely irresponsible. Behind this is a dangerous combination of fear and revenge, says a researcher specializing in the Middle East at London’s Chatham House Yossi Mekelberg.
Now that the Israeli army is on Gaza soil, many extreme politicians have seen a kind of window of opportunity in the situation. According to some, it has opened the way to, among other things, ethnic cleansing.
From the extreme right, for example, the forced relocation of Gaza’s Palestinians across the border to the Egyptian side of the Sinai desert is presented.
Destroyed Gaza, a breeding ground for terrorists
During the military operation, Israel has pushed the Gazans out of northern Gaza.
Among other things, the Israeli government’s minister of agriculture Avi Dichter has said that the goal is to create a buffer zone on the northern border. Its purpose is to protect the Israeli settlement centers on the surface of the border from terrorist attacks.
The Palestinians fear that forcing Gazans towards the south is a prelude to the evacuation of Gaza.
– Netanyahu says he does not want to rule Gaza. Still, he wants Israel to have complete control over the region’s security, researcher Daniel DePetris says.
The speeches of the Israeli political leadership about the future of Gaza are so varied that it is difficult to form an accurate picture of what is Israel’s ultimate goal in Gaza.
– The Israeli government does not have a clear plan for Gaza, says DePetris.
This is because Israel was simply not prepared to occupy Gaza. And it doesn’t want to occupy Gaza for a long time, says Mekelberg.
A prolonged occupation of Gaza would be extremely risky. The international pressure would be enormous.
Israel would rule over two million people whose living conditions have been completely destroyed by its army. There are more than a million internally displaced people in Gaza who have no home to return to after the cease-fire.
– The biggest sufferers are the Gazans, who have nothing to do with Hamas’ crimes, but who are being punished for them, says DePetris.
Invisible and destroyed Gaza is also a fertile breeding ground for future members of Hamas or other extremist organizations.
Listen here to the World Politics Everyday program presented in April 2009, which sheds light on the impact of the then-war on children:
Israel’s close ally, the United States, has recent experience with the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. It has warned Israel of the dangers of the occupation.
– If Israel leaves thousands of soldiers in Gaza, it will find itself in the same situation as the United States was in Afghanistan for two decades, DePetris reminds.
Gaza under the auspices of the UN and the Arab countries?
Right now it seems that the other major states and actors in the region do not want to expand the conflict. Iran, Egypt, Turkey and the Lebanon-based extremist organization Hezbollah have shown restraint regarding Gaza.
However, everyone who can nail a finger is surely interested in what happens in Gaza after the Israeli operation.
– Israel has driven itself into a situation where it is forced to think about future options, says DePetris.
In any case, Gaza is now so badly bombed that it will take at least a decade to rebuild.
One very likely option is that Gaza will be transferred to some kind of international patronage at some point in time. An example could be the temporary administration in Kosovo led by the UN.
Scholars and commentators have presented as one scenario that a peacekeeping force from Arab countries would take control of Gaza. Another option would be a joint peacekeeping operation between the Arab countries and the UN. In that case, the UN would be responsible for the vetting, but the money would come from the Arab countries.
– The United States could be involved in providing logistical, diplomatic and political support, DePetris outlines.
While waiting for power changes
The United States has made it clear that the long-term future of Gaza and the West Bank could somehow be built on the current Palestinian administration.
Instead, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is sympathetic to the Palestinian Authority and its leader to Mahmoud Abbas doubting.
However, Abbas is very unpopular among the Palestinians. He has not measured his support in the elections since 2005, so the Palestinians believe that the justification for his power is on a shaky ground.
DePetris also estimates that the Palestinians see Abbas as an Israeli puppet who does Israel’s dirty work in the West Bank.
– The Palestinian Authority cannot rule Gaza in the wake of Israeli tanks, says Yossi Mekelberg.
Netanyahu’s support is also weak among his own people. It has already diminished in the aftermath of the Hamas terrorist attack.
That’s why both DePetris and Mekelberg see that now is the time for change.
– Israel needs a new leader and so do the Palestinians, Mekelberg estimates.
The new leaders will not necessarily lift the relations between Israel and the Palestinians from freezing to warm, but they could create a new beginning.
Researcher Daniel DePetris is downright pessimistic.
He estimates that in five years there will not be an independent Palestine, which means that the much-talked about two-state model has not been realized.
He foresees that Israel is strongly responsible for the security of Gaza and partly for its control. The UN has final control over Gaza.
– Hamas’s armed force has weakened, but it has not been suppressed, he predicts.