The petrol price has risen to the year’s highest, SEK 21:74. It is expected to slow down in the autumn – and then rise sharply again at the beginning of 2024, says Christian Kopfer, commodity analyst at Handelsbanken.
– It is basically driven by the fact that the world unfortunately consumes more and more crude oil.
Both petrol and diesel have risen in price in late summer. For 95-octane petrol, the price is at an annual high.
– It is a combination of a couple of factors. One is that the krona is record weak against the US dollar, in which crude oil is priced, says Christian Kopfer, commodities analyst at Handelsbanken, and continues:
– The second is that the price of crude oil recovered surprisingly quickly during the summer.
Expected to fall back – then hit record
If the economy gets worse, the price of oil usually also goes down. That development is expected this autumn, but will probably reverse later, says Christian Kopfer.
– Our base scenario is that crude oil prices will fall back in the autumn due to the weaker economic situation globally. Then there is the risk of higher prices into 2024 due to the strengthening of the crude oil market.
The price of crude oil may rise 20-30 percent at the beginning of next year, says Kopfer.
– It is basically driven by the fact that the world unfortunately consumes more and more crude oil and that consumption will probably be at record levels next year.
“The Opec oil cartel”
Another reason for rising crude oil prices is that many of the oil-producing countries themselves can regulate prices through Opec. They raise prices as much as possible without it harming consumption, says Christian Kopfer.
– There is not as much investment in that type of raw material anymore, so we are very much in the hands of the oil cartel Opec. As we see it, there is a risk of even higher petrol prices, at least with this krone exchange rate, into next year.
The petrol price information above applies to prices at staffed stations.