The year 2022 is not yet over, and already the bleak outlook is looming for 2023 in terms of rising energy prices. Gas prices will indeed rise again next year, even if energy checks should (a little) alleviate the pain. The increase in the regulated tariff will be 15% on average from 1 January for customers who have subscribed to a regulated natural gas sales tariff offer (TRVg) or whose contract is indexed to this tariff.
For those who use gas for cooking (base rate) or hot water (B0), the increase could be less. A government decree expected by December 31 will provide more information. Some households, businesses or condominiums contracted under a market price contract or whose contract expired in 2022 have already seen their prices explode and are in difficulty.
In co-ownership, the tariff shield works less well: the aid is capped and the trustee of the building or the social landlord must claim aid a posteriori. Nothing will change for customers or condominiums who had subscribed to a fixed price offer, often over one or more years. But they expose themselves to a price increase when their contract expires. Some contracts have already doubled, tripled or more in 2022. It is advisable to compare the offers carefully because the condominiums, when they commit, pay penalties in the event of termination.
New increases during the year?
About 40% of households will pay more on January 1. These are subscribers of Engie (formerly GDF Suez) at the regulated tariff or of one of the 22 local suppliers, such as Gaz de Bordeaux, or customers of other suppliers with an offer indexed to the regulated tariff. For these customers, the prices have not changed since November 1, 2021 thanks to the price shield without which the bill would have increased by 122%, as the government recalled in September 2022. The State paid the difference and compensated gas suppliers.
Currently, “we can find contracts at the same level as the regulated tariff but not cheaper”, told AFP the energy mediator, who offers a independent and free offer comparator on the Internet.
The increase expected at the beginning of the year will probably not be the only one: there will probably be other gas price increases in 2023. The price shield has been extended until June 30 by the 2023 finance law. The next day, the regulated gas sales tariffs will disappear for everyone, because they are deemed to be contrary to European law.
The customers concerned have received several letters, according to the energy mediator, and will have to sign a new contract. If they remain passive, they will automatically switch to Engie in a contract that they did not however choose. On July 1, 2023, the Energy Regulatory Commission will set up a reference price which could serve as a basis for the continuation of the tariff shield.
For the consumer defense association CLCV, the increase is unsustainable, and the aid insufficient because “for people with incomes of less than 2000 euros per month, some devote 60% of their budget to essential expenses”, including energy .
But this increase is on the contrary a necessary evil, believe on the contrary certain experts who underline the importance of the “price signal” to encourage energy sobriety. They believe that a price distorted by state intervention leads to overconsumption, instead of concentrating subsidies on aid for thermal regulation and renovation.
A notable drop in household consumption
The rise in prices already seems to be having an effect on consumption, at a time when Europe wants to accomplish its energy transition and reduce its consumption of fossil fuels such as gas and oil, which emit greenhouse gases.
Gas consumption in France, as elsewhere in Europe, has indeed dropped significantly since August 1, 2022, but it is difficult to know whether this is due to the price or to an effort of sobriety. For households, the drop has been 14% since August 1, according to climate-corrected figures as of December 18, 2022 by GRTgaz and compared to winter 2018-2019 serving as a reference.
But the spectacular drop in gas consumption by large French manufacturers (-22%) shows that the rise in prices does indeed force customers to reduce their consumption, since companies are not protected by the tariff shield.
Another illustration: in a country like Belgium, where there is no capped gas price, the drop in household consumption reached -20% in November, compared to the 2019-2021 average, according to the Bruegel Institute. .