GAS PRICE. Despite the surge in the price of European gas, the impact on the bill of the French should be limited, at least until this summer. The protective measures put in place by the Government are raining down, and the tariff shield should be extended. Nevertheless, the supply raises questions.
[Mis à jour le 9 mars 2021 à 08h27] 20 billion euros. This is the price announced by Bruno the Mayor “on the sole protection of our compatriots against soaring energy prices” on BFM TV, Monday, March 7. colossal envelope from the French government. The price of the megawatt hour (Dutch TTF) explodes, to the tune of 345 euros this Tuesday, unheard of in all history. Remember that we are not dependent on Russian gas as theGermany. Indeed, our neighbors across the Rhine import up to 60% of gas from the country of the tsars. Also, with the spring pointing its nose, gas consumption should be lower, at least for heating.
However, it may be very complicated to fill the storage reserves if Vladimir Poutine decides to turn off the gas tap in Europe, or if the European Union proclaims an embargo on Russian gas. Another double-edged decision, such as the exclusion of Russian banks from the Swift network. The possibility of a drop in temperature, at home, of 1 degree is also on the table as mentioned Bruno the Mayor at the beginning of the week:We are all going to have to make an effort, we are entering a new world.“
But the real good news comes from the Minister for Public Accounts. Olivier Dussopt spoke this Tuesday, March 8 concerning the extension of the tariff shield at the microphone of South Radioand the least we can say is that his position is clear and clear: “We will definitely extend the tariff shield“. The tariff shield was already in place in France until June 30, 2022. It is now in the process of being extended until December 31, 2022. Excluded from this tariff shield until then, companies could also be affected by the announcement of the Minister of the Economy. Would be eligible, companies whose gas consumption is substantial and vital to the proper functioning of the activity. These companies will also have to demonstrate tough international competition.
The price of natural gas in Europe is already soaring to reach 345 euros per megawatt hour, Tuesday, March 8, 2022. First visible consequence of the war in Ukraine. So, is there a real risk of rising prices in France? For now, not really thanks to the introduction of the tariff shield by the executive. Purchases of energy products could be spared, there should not be a shortage either in France.
However, the latest media releases from the government are not very reassuring. “We’re all gonna have to make an effort, we’re entering a new worlde” affirmed the Minister of the Economy, Bruno the Mayor at the beginning of the week. Paying attention to its energy consumption in the future is the wish of the Bercy tenant. Lower the temperature by 1 degree at home? This is one of the possibilities mentioned by Bruno Le Maire.
Also, supply could be a problem in the future. Not this winter, no, but this summer! The filling of storage which takes place in the spring for the summer could not be carried out correctly if Vladimir Putin were to turn off the gas tap, or if Europe decided to stop importing Russian gas. Another double-edged decision, as with the exclusion of Russian banks from Swift.
The exclusion of Russia from the Swift banking transaction processing system also cast serious doubt on the supply and prices of raw materials and gas in France and Europe. In all likelihood, this will not be the case for gas prices in France. Indeed, purchases of energy products may not be impacted. Significant example, the subsidiary of the Societe Generale, Rosbankwhich officially escapes the exclusion of Swift by European countries, it is not part of the 7 Russian banks already banned. Excellent news for France and Europe in the face of the risk involved.
Good news for households that still depend today on regulated gas prices? In addition to the creation of an inflation allowance instead of a fuel check, the Prime Minister announced that the tariff shield used to freeze gas prices will be extended until the end of 2022, instead of April.
To justify this decision, Jean Castex explained that the decline in prices will be slower than expected. The tenant of Matignon has however ruled out, for the time being, any measure leading to a reduction in taxation. But concretely, what does this measure mean for consumers? Gas prices will, of course, be frozen until the end of the year next year. On the other hand, from the start of 2023, the price of gas will cost consumers a little more than market prices, so that the sums paid in addition during the winter by the operators are recovered. Since the beginning of the year, the regulated price has jumped by more than 50% since January. There was urgency as the mercury prepares to descend.
Today, 40% of European gas is imported from Russia. Be careful, however, only 17% of French gas comes from Russia, there is the big difference with ultra-dependent countries like Germany. Across the Rhine, our neighbors are dependent from 55% to 60% towards the Russia in terms of gas imports. Also, the pipeline North Stream 2 has just been completed between Russia and Germany. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already suspended the authorization for this gas pipeline. Germany finds itself trapped, and could be in great difficulty in the event of a cold snap.
If Russia decides to no longer supply France with gas, France will still have the possibility of supplying itself with Norway (36% gas imported into France) or Algeria (8% gas imported into France), France’s other gas trading partners. Please note that these countries have much more limited supply capacities than Russia. This import of liquefied gas from Norway and Algeria remains, today, the most serious and interesting track if Russia were to stop supplying Europe.
In France, there is no reason to worry, for the time being. Firstly, with Italy, France is the best European student in terms of gas storage according to The Parisian. This greatly protects us, initially, from the risk of lack of supply and variations in supply. Secondly, France has three LNG terminals: Montoir-de-Bretagne (Loire-Atlantique), Fos-sur-Mer (Bouches-du-Rhône) and Dunkirk (North). A considerable advantage which should make it possible to supply French customers with peace of mind in the coming weeks.
Remember that in France, suppliers are required to store gas for several months, in layers. And that’s good news, the French tablecloths are almost full. This covers 1/4 of the annual consumption. The difficulty will be to restock them at the end of winter. Otherwise, major difficulties are to be expected for next winter.
The consumer is facing a veritable spike in gas prices in recent months. For households using gas as a means of cooking, but also for heating, the successive increases will seriously affect the end-of-year budget. The Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) has indeed announced a mess of increases in recent months, these increases affecting the regulated gas prices charged by Engie. They act indirectly on market prices. We summarize what has happened in recent months:
- +10% in July 2021
- +5% in August 2021
- +8.7% in September 2021
- +12.6% in October 2021
- +15% announced on November 1, 2021.
The government recently announced the payment of an additional energy check of 100 euros for the 5.8 million households benefiting from the energy check. Payment is scheduled for December. To find out more, see our dedicated article:
Are you still dependent on regulated gas prices? This price increase is not the only reason to look elsewhere! Since the Energy and Climate law adopted in 2019, regulated tariffs are gradually disappearing. Engie has ceased to market new contracts at regulated sales tariffs (TRV), since November 2019, which means that you will soon change your contract. If you have an Engie contract, don’t panic. It remains valid until June 30, 2023. In this context of crisis, are you studying the possibility of changing your energy supplier more seriously? Consult our dedicated file without further delay:
Be careful, however, since if you have not changed your contract yourself, you will see your contract automatically switch to a market offer from Engie, from July 1, 2023. If you change provider, find out on the website of the national energy ombudsman, herewhich offers a comparator of offers to find the formula that meets your consumption needs.
Do you want to know the price of gas near you? Here are some examples: gas prices in Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Rennes, Nantes, or even Lille. You can also search for the city of your choice using the search bar below: