(Finance) – The general scenario remains in place evolution and, of course, delicate. Translated: it is not yet time to sing victory but the worse could be behind.
Even in the case of total interruption of gas flows from Russia – today at 9% of the total requirement, 40% in February – winter shouldn’t pose a problem for the EU which would seem to have run for cover in time by working on a double front: filling stocks on the one hand and anti-price increases on the other, which should be able to bring down the gas price, until almost halved, after the surge in recent months. This is the forecast released yesterday by the American investment bank Goldman Sachs.
Compared to today’s values, that is 215 € / MWhthe price of gas should in fact fall below 100 € / MWh by the first quarter of 2023 in the event of average climatic conditions during the winter, before the ascent will resume in the summer when the rush of operators to fill the storage facilities.
“The indefinite reduction in exports of Nord Stream 1 zero leaves northwestern Europe without Russian gas in the future. Although we often wonder what will happen to storage, we believe a better approach is to ask what will happen to prices, in so that stocks continue to grow as needed “, writes Goldman Sachs.
Meanwhile, as revealed by the Financial Times, optimism is growing among the European natural gas tradersand who, while maintaining the necessary caution, go so far as to venture that i prices may have peaked. After all, the descent seems to have begun: if in fact the August 26 the price of wholesale gas in Europe reached an intraday high of 343 euros per megawatt-hour – the equivalent of nearly $ 580 a barrel in oil terms – today has dropped to about 200 euros / MWh. The prices, however, points out FT, remain in any case in a territory of big upsidethat is almost 10 times the average level of the last decade.