Notice to those interested: the British Navy is looking for its next Captain Nemo. Prerequisites: having served in the regular forces or being part of the reserves. Salary: approximately 150,000 pounds sterling per year (174,000 euros). The announcement, published in January on the Royal Navy’s LinkedIn account, caused a small earthquake in the Anglo-Saxon press. For good reason, this concerns nothing less than a position of director of nuclear submarines in the context of “highly classified stealth operations”. The famous English humor? Quite the contrary. “No serving sailor is fit to replace Vice-Admiral Simon Asquith”, commented Tea Telegraphciting a “context of growing recruitment crisis” such that the English army could prematurely withdraw two frigates from active service, due to a lack of available sailors.
This problem actually concerns most professionalized armies. To the point that Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) specializing in armaments, sees it as a “problem of modern countries of the 21st century”. In the United States, the number of soldiers on active duty is expected to fall in 2024 to less than 1.3 million – its lowest level since 1940. In Belgium, the army has lost 20% of its troops in five years. Just like in Germany, where recruitment is down 7%. Not to mention France, where the army has a deficit of 2,000 to 2,500 soldiers for 2023.
All the more worrying at a time when many observers are concerned about a possible resurgence of armed conflicts in the world. Thus the historian Niall Ferguson who, to L’Express, estimated in November the “real” danger of a third world war. Likewise, according to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, Europe could well face new military threats by the end of the decade. “The professionalized armies of developed countries are not ready for a high-intensity conflict, which involves human and material losses that will have to be replaced,” judges Léo Péria-Peigné. The expert has serious doubts about the feasibility of this last point. Because behind this recruitment crisis lies first and foremost a positive trend from a societal point of view… therefore difficult to combat.
Full employment
On the parody site Caporal Stratégique, dedicated to army news, we could read an article on January 11 entitled “Growing concern among military recruiters with the drop in unemployment”. This touch of humor reflects a reality, which Léo Péria-Peigné summarizes as follows: “The number 1 enemy of the army is full employment.” Conversely, crises have often benefited the army. Like in 2009, in the middle of the economic crisis. Faced with an uncertain job market, the military function had aroused a marked revival of interest, particularly within the American army. However, in March 2023, unemployment rates were at their lowest in fifty years (3.5%) in the United States, according to figures from the Department of Labor (before climbing again in August to 3.8% ). Likewise in Europe, where unemployment was at its historic low in June 2023 (5.9%).
The rest, recruitment professionals know: more job offers mean more demanding candidates. In a report published in September 2023, the High Committee for the Evaluation of the Military Condition, an independent body (whose members are appointed by the President of the Republic), noted a “slow but constant erosion” of vocations among young people. officers for around ten years. Until now, the recruitment crisis mainly affected non-commissioned members of the army.
Among the reasons noted in the report: the desire for a better balance between professional and private life, the rise in the cost of living caused by inflation… Why not try your luck in the private sector, where it is better paid, and where There is no shortage of offers? More worrying, the organization also noted a “loss of meaning”. In particular: “a persistent problem of lack of availability of materials” excluding external operations.
Financial argument
Even the famous “Opex” no longer make us dream. After ten years of existence, Operation Barkhane in the Sahel ended in 2022. The army’s 2024 budget also provides for a reduction of 400 million euros in external operations. However, as Léo Péria-Peigné points out, “young people also sign up to go on adventures. The prospect of doing surveillance during the Olympic Games enchants them less. Especially since during external operations, the soldiers received bonuses, which made it possible to compensate for the low salaries of the army. Until now, the peak of departures was between twelve and thirteen years of service. However, now, the armies are seeing a general increase in departures before the age of 40 (11% in 2022, up 3% compared to 2020). QED
Some armies have done it to increase salaries. In the case of Russia, this strategy seems to be paying off. To compensate for its manpower shortages in the context of the war in Ukraine, the army pays its soldiers 200,000 rubles per month (or 2,000 euros per month), whereas, in peacetime, soldiers’ salaries are around 40,000 rubles. In total, 385,000 people would have been recruited into the army in 2023, according to official figures. Should we be surprised, in a country where at least 15% of the population lives below the poverty line? And would the situation be the same if the country was not at war?
In January 2022, the American Army also began offering bonuses of up to $50,000 (unheard of) to new recruits enlisting for six years, likely to occupy stressful positions. , or to leave promptly for training camp. However, this did not make it possible to achieve the objectives set for the year 2022-2023: three branches of the armed forces (out of five) did not recruit as planned.
Modernization
Has patriotism had its day, as certain commentators regularly assert? The question is more complex, and clashes with the modernization ambitions of many armies which often involve attracting more profiles with a university degree.
In the United States, the army launched a new marketing campaign in October, using the army slogan of the 1980s (“Be All You Can Be”) aimed, in particular, at more qualified profiles. The fact remains that today, at least 50% of recruits have not been to university. Similarly, in France, 25% of non-graduates or holders of a BEPC could “certainly” join the army, compared to only 9% of holders of a second cycle diploma, according to an Ifop study published in October.
Same observation in authoritarian countries. Starting with China, one of the greatest military powers in the world, whose army modernization in recent decades requires more qualified personnel. In May 2023, the country thus revised its law on military service (to enlist retired soldiers, as well as young graduates in scientific fields and new technologies) in order to compensate for a lesser appetite for voluntary enlistment in the army. “Even in China, the military does not attract the best educated, not only because it does not correspond to their career plans, but also because, for a woman, marrying an officer is not interesting. is a brake”, explains Léo Peina-Peigné.
“Too fat to fight”
The military figure is no longer in the imagination. For many, these films showing soldiers returning home under the admiring eye of civilians – Rambo, Journey to the End of Hell – belong to the past. “Society no longer knows the figure of the soldier. The most effective way to rekindle young people’s appetite for the role would be to reintroduce a positive story around it into the media space.” Would returning to military service be the miracle solution? In Sweden, the state reinstated it in 2019. A success, if we judge by the influx of volunteers in the first years. Here again, how can we distinguish real enthusiasm for the function of fear from an expansion of the conflict in Ukraine, to which Sweden is geographically close?
Another question has worried military health specialists for several years. In addition to the aging of the population, which is already pushing many countries such as Japan to raise the age limit for enlisting, physical health is also a subject of concern. “Too fat to fight”, headline The Sunday Times in 2014, revealing that in the UK, 11% of soldiers were failing physical tests. The cause, in particular: their poor diet. Likewise in the United States, where obesity is very widespread, candidates suitable for service are becoming increasingly rare. Can a public health problem be solved with bonuses?
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