There is amicable divorce and breakup without notice, with additional humiliation. Chad and Senegal chose the second formula to put an end to the French military presence on their soil. First the timing, fatal. The head of French diplomacy Jean-Noël Barrot has just completed his visit to Chad on November 28 when, in a surprise statement, his Chadian counterpart denounces the defense agreements with Paris, an unwavering ally of the Déby dynasty which reigns over the country. for decades. The minister reportedly learned the news on the plane to Ethiopia, the second leg of his African tour.
A few hours earlier, the first clap of thunder came from Senegal. In an interview given to Worldits president Bassirou Diomaye Faye announced that there would be “soon no more French soldiers” in his country, where 350 men are stationed. Emmanuel Macron had just officially recognized the massacre at Thiaroye, this military camp where colonial forces opened fire on Senegalese riflemen in 1944, leaving dozens dead. Two declarations a few hours apart, at the very moment when the French head of state receives another African president, the leader of Nigeria Bola Tinubu. The operation looks like sabotage.
The language elements chosen by N’Djamena and Dakar are unequivocal. “France is an essential partner but it must also now consider that Chad has grown, has matured and that Chad is a sovereign state and very jealous of its sovereignty,” declared its head of diplomacy on November 28. “Which country can have foreign soldiers on its soil and claim its independence? France does not accept it, so it must not impose it on other countries,” asserts the Senegalese sovereignist president.
A model out of breath
The pill is hard to swallow for the French army, which is slowing down to leave Africa, often referred to as its “sandbox”, a giant training camp and the symbol, formerly, of the tricolor influence. In their 2024 wishes addressed to active and retired military readers of The Golden Anchorthe review of the marine troops, Generals Vidal and Bonnet still hoped for “many missions outside France”. Before concluding with this formula: “And in the name of God, long live the Coloniale!”. The anecdote, reported by Stephen Smith and Jean de La Guérivière in their recent work Requiem for “the Colonial” (Grasset, 2024) shows the extent of the denial within part of the French general staff regarding the military presence in Africa.
“The model of external operations in Africa has reached the end of a cycle, underlines Elie Tenenbaum, director of the Center for Security Studies at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). There is a difficulty in understanding the expectations of our partners, often seen as having to conform to French interests.” With Chad, the French generals still believed they had a privileged relationship. In this Central African country, located on the borders of Libya, Sudan, Niger, Nigeria, Cameroon and the Central African Republic, the French army has long occupied a strategic place. And saved President Idriss Déby more than once from the threat of rebel movements. After his death in 2021, Emmanuel Macron was the only Western head of state present at his funeral and even knighted his son, Mahamat Idriss Déby, ratifying a contested dynastic succession. Three years later, the idyll is well and truly buried. At the top of the general staff, however, the break is not a total surprise. “Chad is hanging over our heads!” was already being whispered in high places a few months ago.
Pivot to Eastern Europe
“Once again, France is being overtaken by its partners at a time when it is seeking to regain control of the agenda,” continues Elie Tenenbaum. This Monday, November 25, Jean-Marie Bockel, Emmanuel Macron’s special envoy for Africa, gave him a report recommending an overhaul of the French military system and a drastic reduction in its numbers. “This report was discussed with African states, continues the researcher. However, neither Senegal nor Chad had demanded the departure of French soldiers. In reality, Paris’ partners want to control the narrative by presenting their decision as a march towards emancipation and the completion of decolonization.”
Will Ivory Coast and Gabon, where the French army is still established, follow in the footsteps of their neighbors? “A nationalist groundswell is crossing the continent,” recalls Elie Tenenbaum. With presidential elections approaching in these two countries in 2025, the tide could quickly turn. “In Africa, France risks suffering an intellectual, military, political and economic Waterloo; in other words, a complete defeat after which no one will want it anymore,” warned Cameroonian historian Achille Mbembe in L’Express. Paris is heading straight towards this scenario. The end of one era and the beginning of another, this time on the European continent.
“A new cycle is emerging with threats much closer to French territory, in the context of the war in Ukraine,” points out Elie Tenenbaum. The pivot towards Eastern Europe has already begun. At the Elysée as in the armies, we are increasing the signals in favor of a French contribution, including through the deployment of soldiers, in the security guarantees that could be offered to Ukraine tomorrow. kyiv could be the first beneficiary of Africa’s hasty retreat.
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