Over three kroner per kilowatt hour (kWh). That’s how high the electricity price landed in August last year in electricity area 4, that is, Southern Sweden.
That was then, now the picture is completely different. So far into August, the average price in southernmost Sweden is 31 öre per kWh, according to pricing on the Nord Pool electricity exchange.
– So far in August, the average is super low, says Björn Björnson, electricity price analyst at the electricity trading company Godel.
Three years ago
Even in the rest of the country, the picture is similar, except in Norra Norrland, although the castes are not quite as large. So far in August this year, the average price in other electricity areas is 18 öre. In electricity area 3, Svealand and northern Götaland, you have to go back to the summer of three years ago to find lower monthly prices.
– The prices are back to the super cheap year 2020, says Björn Björnson.
On top of the market price, electricity tax, VAT and grid charge of over one kroner per kWh are added. The average price over a month is what is most important to all of them, more than half of the households, with a variable electricity price agreement.
Gas prices on the continent are an important piece of the puzzle. They are at more normal levels after last autumn and winter’s record-high prices, which spilled over into the Nordic electricity market. It’s a bit shaky though, even if the warehouses are well stocked for winter.
– There is still a nervous trade in gas, says Björnson.
Dusty weather good for the price
The other day the market was shaken by reports of an Australian strike that threatens to hit gas exports. Whether it will be a kind or severe winter also plays a role.
The operation of nuclear power is also crucial. Reactors that are forced to repair directly affect the price of electricity. The latest example is the turbine failure at the Finnish reactor Olkiluoto 2 that was discovered on Thursday. It caused the electricity price to skyrocket in Finland. On the other hand, Olkiluoto 3 has been added to the market since last winter, which when it runs at full capacity pushes the price even in Sweden.
At home, wind and rain have been favorable for electricity prices. The water reservoirs are well filled.
– It has gone from a deficit to a surplus, says Björnson.
All in all, the forecasts for the winter look favorable. Pricing for future contracts on the electricity exchange indicates average prices during December to February of between 50 öre in Norrland and 80 öre in electricity area 3 and one kroner per kilowatt hour in electricity area 4.
– The market currently assesses that there will be no shortage this winter, says Björn Björnson.