The full-scale participation of the terrorist organization Hezbollah in the conflict between Israel and Hamas would lead to a disaster, writes Heikkilä.
Jukka-Pekka Heikkilä PhD in Business Sciences
Israel and the terrorist organization Hamas are waging a full-scale war in the Gaza Strip. The further the fighting progresses, the greater the threat creeping in from the north will become: terrorist organization Hezbollah’s entry into the conflict. If realized, this would open a new front with Lebanon, where the social situation has progressed in an even weaker direction since the 2020 Beirut explosion. The economy has collapsedunemployment is high and corruption is rampant.
Israel’s northern neighbor Lebanon the political system is broken. Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International AffairsAccording to , the Lebanese must survive without any form of government support. Everyday reality is tough. Lebanese family entrepreneur and doctoral researcher at Hanken University of Economics Fouad-Philip Saade has stated that Lebanon, which is at the point of collapse, has moved to a cash economy. Electricity and running water are very scarce anymore.
The social security provided by the unarmed wing of Hezbollah, classified as a terrorist organization, has filled the void in the political system. In addition, the militant movement has grown in popularity serves on the official board behind the scenes and allies with various Sunni and Shia parties as needed. However, the movement founded by Iran in 1982 is not a traditional party. It was created to destroy Israel.
Current Hezbollah is a state within a state. It is better armed than the Lebanese army and has strong support networks in Iran. Speculations in Iran participation in the Hamas attack has been presentedand later disputed. However, the connections between Shia Islam’s Hezbollah and Sunni Islam’s Hamas are obvious, as both seek Israel’s destruction and the senior leaders of both organizations live in Beirut.
As a result of the Israeli occupation, the Palestinians no longer have a future. It is precisely this desperation that Iran, which finances and arms Hezbollah, takes advantage of. In that story, Hezbollah and Hamas can use war to bring a better era for the Palestinians. Iran’s goal is block agreements to normalize Arab-Israeli relations, because it does not want to receive a unified regional front. Because of this, the Iranian administration may seek to escalate the fight by putting pressure on Hezbollah to invade northern Israel.
Here lies a great risk and hope: the familiar rules of warfare do not apply to a wounded and furious Israel. Hezbollah must therefore refrain from attacking or act cautiously if it wants to avoid conflict, including in the region the world’s largest warship sent by the United States is included.
Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu has previously stated that Continuation of Hamas activities has been in Israel’s interest. The Israeli right has seen Hamas as a useful deterrent. As a terrorist organization, Hamas cannot be a partner in peace, but allowing it to exist has served as a useful shield internationally declared illegal against criticism related to settlement policy. Now Netanyahu says that Hamas must be destroyed like Isis. Senior researcher specializing in peace Samy Cohen from Science Po University has stated that the peace process has been dead for a long time. The subject of peace has disappeared.
The United States militarily supports Israel’s efforts destroy Hamas. Research institute Center for Strategic International Studies has already stated that the United States has suspended all efforts to promote the normalization of Israeli-Palestinian relations. This means a brutal continuation of the war.
While many Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon may take satisfaction in seeing Israel suffer, joining the war is not popular. A Lebanese living in Finland Covered by the Beirut explosion researcher-activist Lina Daouk-Öyry told me that the situation evokes deep, fearful memories of the 2006 war in Beirut.
The probability of clashes is however high, because the threshold is especially high for those operating under Hezbollah Palestinian militant organizations to go to war is low. The armament is already ready.
While walking last spring in downtown Beirut, the fourth generation in the Palestinian ghetto, Shatilaa research colleague asked our local guide about safety.
– It is very safe here. The whole area is so full of weapons that nothing dangerous will happen here, the guide said.
It is appropriate to hope that those weapons remain in Shatila.
Jukka-Pekka Heikkilä
The author is a curious unifier of different disciplines from Helsinki, who has worked for years in Beirut and published the educational work done there in scientific journals. He works at Aalto University and as a visiting researcher at Stanford and Harvard universities.
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