German legislative elections will take place on Sunday, February 23. The favorite in the polls is Friedrich Merz, the leader of the conservatives, which worries the Greens and the Social Democrats.
Germany should soon have a new chancellor. The legislative elections will take place on Sunday, February 23 and the leader of the majority party will be elected at the head of the Chancellery. According to polls, just a few hours from the ballot, the Conservative Party (CDU-CSU) comes first with a 30 % voting intention. It is placed in the lead, followed by AFD (extreme right) which accumulates 20 %, then of the Social Democrats (SPD, 15 %, Party of Olaf Scholz), and finally Greens (14 %).
Friedrich Merz assured during a final televised debate with Olaf Scholz, the current Chancellor, on Wednesday, February 19, that his two objectives are to resolve “migration and economy”. In addition, the conservative leader wishes to block the far right. However, that did not prevent the party from voting for AFD measures on migratory subjects, which worries the social democrats and the Greens.
A difficult coalition to form?
If it turns out that the polls are true and that Friedrich Merz becomes very chancellor, he will have to form an alliance. Indeed, the Bundestag (German parliament) is elected according to a mixed system combining a uninominal ballot and a proportional representation. In addition, no party has gathered an absolute majority since the 1950s. So alliances are necessary, much as currently in the National Assembly in France.
In order to be able to govern, the possible future conservative chancellor could ally with the extreme right. However, according to polls, the two parties would only bring together a majority (30 % + 20 %) which is not yet guaranteed. So, he could ally himself on the left, with the Social Democrats and the Greens, thus forming an alliance which would represent 59 % of the Parliament, still according to the polls. A safer majority but which would push him to make political compromises, especially on migratory subjects. In addition, his campaign has Trumpists, as reported BFM-RMC. His slogan, “a Germany we can be proud of again”, is very similar to that of Donald Trump. Friedrich Merz has also said that he would oppose parity in his government.
Who is Friedrich Merz?
Friedrich Merz is 69 years old. He is Catholic, married and father of three children. His political experience is not very provided. He was a deputy for the Bundestag and the European Parliament, but never mayor, minister or president of a land (equivalent of the regions in Germany). He moved away from the political sphere in 2002, when Angela Merkel arrived at the head of the group of CDU deputies in Parliament, finding it too centrist. He has also engaged a right turn since his arrival at the head of the CDU, when the Chancellor left power.
Friedrich Merz then turned to the private sector and large companies, such as AXA, HSBC and BlackRock, one of the largest asset managers in the world. His experience in insurance and banks also gives him credibility concerning his economic ambition for Germany, while worrying the left -wing supporters.