Let’s be honest: few in France will regret Olaf Scholz’s coalition, whose last days seem numbered. Starting with Emmanuel Macron, whose “professional” relationship with the German Chancellor has never been able to mask their numerous disagreements – whether on security, the European investment plan or, even, nuclear power.
Widely favored, the conservative Friedrich Merz (CDU) could, following the early elections, which will take place on February 23, 2025, lead a coalition with the Social Democrats – this is in any case one of the most plausible scenarios . Is this good news for France? It’s not safe. “Even if Friedrich Merz, of Rhineland origin, is rather Francophile, he will quickly put Paris under pressure, because of the budgetary situation in France, tempers Eric-André Martin, former diplomat and specialist on Germany. Vu of Berlin, French fragility indeed poses a systemic risk to Europe, especially in a very changing geopolitical context – for example an oil crisis, following an intensification of the war between Israel and Iran.”
Pressure on Paris
Other areas of contention are to be expected, such as aid to Ukraine. Berlin would like France to participate more in the “war effort”, especially if Donald Trump reduces American aid, which is likely. There is also the thorny subject of European defense. France, like Estonia, is pushing to launch a large loan, which would allow the Twenty-Seven to make industrial investments and buy weapons off the shelf from some of its members, but also from the Americans or, for example, to the South Koreans. Crucial for European sovereignty, this debt policy nevertheless risks getting a refusal from the Germans, who should – no more than with Olaf Scholz – deviate from their financial orthodoxy, especially if the liberals invite themselves in the future coalition. In bad economic times, the Germans will have only one priority in mind: to revive their flagging industry. In other words, even without the Marmorean Olaf Scholz, the Franco-German engine risks still experiencing a few hiccups. Before restarting?