While the second round of the presidential election in France will oppose Emmanuel Macron to Marine Le Pen on April 24, 2022, can questions of international politics play a role in the choice of voters?
The answer is yes, to some extent. And it is a phenomenon that is new enough to be underlined. Usually, in major national elections, whether in France or abroad, social and economic issues predominate. Geopolitical issues come far behind. We know Bill Clinton’s response to one of his advisers who was highlighting foreign policy issues in the presidential campaign: it’s the economy, stupid », « it’s the economy, silly “, implied: it is the economy that matters in an election – especially presidential.
But in France this year, two events have shaken up this adage: first, the war in Ukraine, which has become, and for good reason, a subject of major concern among voters. And then, the profile and programmatic commitments of the candidate of the National Rally internationally, and in particular on the functioning of the European Union, compared to those of his opponent Emmanuel Macron.
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Two divergent visions
We are here on two visions which are very often opposed, and only rarely come together. Marine Le Pen puts forward the Nation as a requirement of independence and sovereignty, believes that France is still a great power that counts. Emmanuel Macron speaks rather of a middle power with international influence and above all believes that France alone today could not play the same role and that it therefore has an urgent need for its membership of Europe.
It is on this European file that the conceptions appear furthest apart: while the outgoing President wants to strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy, its military and diplomatic capacities, its status as a mediating power, Marine Le Pen, who does not speak no more leaving the European Union or the euro as in 2017, remains in great ambiguity on the subject: she wants France to remain in the EU, but wants to reform this institution from within.
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And above all, what the outgoing President does not fail to point out, many of his measures go against the rules and sometimes the European treaties, such as the re-establishment of national borders, the primacy of national law over European law, or its desire to reduce the French contribution to the Union budget by 5 billion.
The Franco-German engine, a quasi-fiction for Marine Le Pen
She is also very severe on the relationship with Berlin: she believes that the Franco-German engine has become a quasi-fiction, and announces that she wants to end certain Franco-German cooperation, particularly in the field of defence. This would lead the two countries and therefore Europe into a period of high tension.
Finally, concerning NATO this time, she wants France to leave the integrated command, and, in the midst of the Ukrainian war, wants, once the hostilities are over, a strategic rapprochement between NATO and Russia! Here too, his positions contrast radically with those of Emmanuel Macron. There is no doubt that these international questions will occupy part of the debate which must oppose the two candidates for the presidency on April 20.