The Social Democrats, Parti Socialiste and Ecologists, won just over 6% of the vote after the first round of the French presidential election, when they were in power five years ago. How to explain such a collapse?
Neither Anne Hidalgo nor Yannick Jadot had a good campaign. The PS candidate collapsed due to strategic reversals and programmatic errors, while the champion of environmentalists failed to respond to the call for radicalism that had been sent to him during the primary won with difficulty against to Sandrine Rousseau.
As a result, their voters changed sides. On the socialist side, many have gone to Emmanuel Macron, who for 5 years has multiplied poaching from the PS. On the environmental side, the useful vote benefited Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who had taken care to propose a program almost greener than the Greens.
A poor analysis of the political landscape
Throughout the campaign, Anne Hidalgo wanted to believe that the presence in power of the Social Democrats in Spain or Portugal, for example, was proof that this political current was always intended to be the majority on the left in France. But on the side of Madrid and Lisbon, the return to power of the left was based on the more radical currents, Podemos and the Left Bloc… In France, the execrable relations between the Socialist Party and La France insoumise made impossible any alliance.
The problem was somewhat the same for Yannick Jadot: his teams had estimated that the battle had to be played in the center and that it was therefore necessary to seduce the socialist voters and the left wing of the macronists, while presenting Jean-Luc Mélenchon as a potential danger to democracy. Two erroneous analyzes and two stinging failures which now raise the question of the very survival of the two movements.
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In the case of the Socialist Party, the probability of a disappearance is more and more strong. Rumors have been swirling around the creation of a new party for several weeks now. Former President François Hollande has already mentioned a broader movement in which the PS would merge with other political formations. Because the Socialist Party brand is very clearly damaged after two catastrophic presidential elections. The PS, however, retains an ace up its sleeve: the many towns and local authorities it runs.
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It’s a bit the same for Europe Écologie-Les Verts (EELV) which conquered Lyon, Strasbourg or even Bordeaux during the last municipal elections. The party now has local roots, but with a weakened national potential. Reinventing yourself, re-badging yourself as we say in the economic field, could be a temptation.
Financial difficulties to be expected
On the financial level, the PS has certainly led a campaign for the economy, anticipating the fact that Anne Hidalgo does not obtain the 5% of the votes necessary to reimburse her expenses. But he had to rely on his local federations because of the old debts he dragged at the national level since the time of his splendor. The party has already carried out two social plans in recent years. And if some of its elected officials were to leave, seduced for example by the sirens of Emmanuel Macron, the situation could become very complicated.
As for Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, the urgency is already there: persuaded to pass the 5% mark, Yannick Jadot has spent nearly 6 million euros for his campaign by borrowing from banks. This debt is likely to strangle the party, which has never had much means. A call for donations was launched last night.
But it will probably be necessary to wait for the legislative elections and the results of the two parties to see more clearly.
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