François Hollande, candidate of the New Popular Front, came out on top in the first round of the legislative elections in his constituency in Corrèze. But what result can he obtain in the second round when a three-way race is emerging? Is his victory possible?
Can François Hollande win the legislative elections? Candidate in the 1st constituency of Corrèze, the former President of the Republic came out on top in the first round on Sunday, June 30, but without obtaining a sufficient score to be elected. The socialist, invested by the New Popular Front for the election, must therefore go back to the polls to hope to sit in the National Assembly, but is not approaching the vote on Sunday, July 7 with serenity.
The configuration of the second round of the legislative elections is not ideal for François Hollande, who will be participating in a three-way race against the candidate of the National Rally who came second and the outgoing MP labeled Les Républicains who qualified in third position. The latter refused to withdraw, believing that “we must beat François Hollande, this candidate of the far-left New Popular Front”. A decision that François Hollande “deplores”: “They are also thinking that I am the main threat”.
Faced with two candidates from the right and the far right, François Hollande can only count on a part of the Macronist electorate and the abstainers from the first round, in addition to the voters who supported him in the first round, to hope to win the legislative elections. If the three-way races are most often favorable to the candidate who came out on top in the first round, nothing is decided in advance for the socialist candidate.
What result for François Hollande in the legislative elections?
François Hollande obtained 37.63% of the votes in the first round of the legislative elections in the 1st constituency of Corrèze and came out on top. But two other candidates managed to qualify for the second round: the candidate of the National Rally Maïtey Pouget with 30.89% of the votes and the outgoing deputy from the Republicans Francis Dubois with a score of 28.64%.
The battle is therefore likely to be tight to obtain the seat of deputy, even if François Hollande can take advantage of this three-way race and hope that this distribution of votes will be repeated and ensure him a victory. None of the candidates are withdrawing, but the shift of the right-wing electorate to that of the far right, or vice versa, is not impossible. The candidate of the National Rally is counting on this possibility, as she said to Franceinfo : “The only possible strategy is to convince Mr. Dubois’ voters to join us.”
No majority opponent against François Hollande
François Hollande did not find an opponent from the presidential majority in his constituency. Emmanuel Macron’s camp, which decided not to invest candidates in the 577 constituencies, gave up the 1st of Corrèze out of respect for the former President of the Republic according to Gabriel Attal. But the choice was mainly motivated by the chances of victory deemed low for the majority in this territory. Instead, the majority preferred to give its support to a candidate, but it is not François Hollande who receives the support of the party in power, it is the outgoing LR deputy Francis Dubois. “The former President is a candidate in the alliance of La France insoumise, and it is not this alliance that we want to see win for the country” justified the Prime Minister at the time.
Macronist voters have clearly followed the majority’s decision by supporting the LR candidate in the first round. They should repeat this choice for the next election, unless the majority calls again to support the candidate best placed to win against the National Rally, which, in the 1st constituency of Corrèze, is François Hollande. Gabriel Attal called on the majority candidates who came third to withdraw in order to prevent RN victories. He could logically call on voters to deport their votes when no majority candidate is in the running. The fact remains that Macronist voters are more compatible with the right than with the New Popular Front program.