The elastic stretches, no one wants it to snap. This Wednesday, December 18, Bruno Retailleau goes to the Matignon hotel to talk with François Bayrou. The mayor of Pau summoned the Minister of the Interior the day before, upon his return from Mayotte. The two men, with distinct political histories, know each other little. A grain of sand can stop their embryonic duo: the poison of doubt. The tenant of Beauvau has questions about the intentions of the head of government. The doctrinaire Retailleau had free rein under Michel Barnier. Will he have the same ideological freedom under the authority of the centrist? Might as well talk to each other.
Bruno Retailleau does not come to Matignon empty-handed. They are full of… red lines. He listed them a few minutes before on BFMTV. “I will only be able to stay in government if I am able […] to restore authority, firmness and public order, both in our streets and at our borders.” The Vendéen denies any sectarianism, but insists on his refusal to “betray himself.” “I am not a mercenary. I am not ready to sell my ideas at any price,” he says.
Encouraging interview
As when he arrived in Beauvau, he draws legitimacy from this “national majority”, which he judges to be in line with his orientations. Intransigence is covered with a democratic veneer. Which is rather welcome when you wear the colors of a party that fell to less than 5% during the presidential election. In Matignon, Bruno Retailleau extends his televised remarks. He lists a series of demands, ranging from a reform of State Medical Aid (AME) to the reestablishment of the offense of illegal residence. Without forgetting the extension of the maximum duration in administrative detention centers for certain illegal immigrants as a modification of the Valls circular. His host takes note. Bruno Retailleau gives an encouraging report of the exchange to Laurent Wauquiez. With an optimistic message: he did not sense a veto from the Béarnais to his programmatic grievances.
There is fog in the air. This Friday, December 13, the sun is still shining. Bruno Retailleau is received at Matignon, a few hours after the appointment of François Bayrou. He came away satisfied with the interview. “Bayrou rolled out the red carpet for him,” smiles an elected official close to the Vendéen. The rest is murkier. The Minister of the Interior was dispatched on Sunday December 15 to Mayotte, ravaged by Cyclone Chido. Out of sight, out of mind? A little music is rising in the metropolis. The left, strategic for the survival of François Bayrou, launches an offensive against the Minister of the Interior. Eric Ciotti urges Bruno Retailleau not to abandon his immigration law, a sign of “political blackmail”.
“No one is excited by the story”
The accusation of treason is not far away. Above all, the interview on Monday December 17 between François Bayrou and the presidents of LR parliamentary groups is a disappointment. The next day, the boss of the Republican Right (DR) deputies Laurent Wauquiez described to his troops the “vagueness” of Béarnais, particularly on migration issues. The trouble is spreading to the DR deputies, aggravated by the chaotic beginnings of François Bayrou. Ride the Titanic? At least the legendary liner looked good before hitting the iceberg. And no matter the desire of LR ministers to stay on board. “We hear about the socialist Philippe Brun at the Economy, wonders a DR deputy. Understand that we need to know more.” “No one is excited about this story,” adds another. Especially when its narrator is a reviled centrist, described as “soft” or “traitor” internally.
Here is Bruno Retailleau embarrassed around the edges. This Tuesday, December 17, he spoke on the phone with Laurent Wauquiez from Mayotte. The boss of the DR deputies understands his questions. The minister does not want to be prevented. And above all not be used by the new Prime Minister, by agreeing to be reappointed against the advice of his troops. “We cannot understand Bruno Retailleau without this notion of collective. He does not see himself for a second alone in government, debauched against his party, slips a lieutenant. It is better if the right follows first.”
Bruno Retailleau has a sense of the collective. Of his interests, too. On December 6, he released a tweet hostile to any “compromise with the left […] who made a pact with the rebels”, just before Emmanuel Macron received the socialists. He grabbed his phone again on December 17 to put the migration issue on the table in Mayotte, ravaged by cyclone Chido. Indignation guaranteed. Socialists detect an offensive against any rapprochement between François Bayrou and the left. Being a scarecrow can provide some advantages. “He does not want to be handicapped by a non-censorship agreement. with the feeling of being a prisoner of the left, judges privately the First Secretary of the Socialist Party Olivier Faure. He wants a Barnier-type government and to prevent toying with the left.”
“I want the line to be clarified”
The interview on BFMTV this Wednesday completes the offensive. The day before, Bruno Retailleau had dinner with LR senators. To these parliamentarians, he reminds his equation. He wishes to continue his functions, but not at all costs. “We are in a standoff. The stakes are rising, assures a recent interlocutor. He will leave if François Bayrou intends to transform him into Christophe Castaner.” A DR deputy gives his advice to the minister’s office: “Ask for strong guarantees.” To a close friend, Bruno Retailleau confided in substance on Tuesday evening: “I want the line to be clarified.” Conviction is combined with the interests of the minister. Why build an image as a man of ideas and destroy it for such a precarious government lease?
Negotiation is a balance of power. At François Bayrou, serenity is essential. The warnings from France’s top cop are intended more to reassure the right than to target the Prime Minister. Around Bruno Retailleau, we are sure of his game. The popularity of the Beauvau tenant is a solid shield. His status as a strong man on the right makes him the keystone of LR’s participation in the next government. Without the Vendéen, the common base would be reduced by 47 deputies and the senatorial majority. Governing with a smaller parliamentary base than Michel Barnier is not really François Bayrou’s ambition. “He would form a government with Attal and Ferrand?”, smiles an LR leader.
Without Retailleau, no LR. Is the converse true? Can a man take his family on board on his own will? The analyzes contradict each other. Here, he is judged capable of winning his people under his flag. Its doctrinal rigor would be the antidote to suspicions of individual escapes. There, we emphasize the reluctance of DR deputies to support a coalition that is as precarious as it is far from their convictions. Bruno Retailleau is currently determined not to play it alone. The right doesn’t need another headache.
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