Former French Ambassador to Qatar (1998-2002) and Saudi Arabia (2007-2016), Bertrand Besancenot, is one of the best specialists in the Middle East. The one who was diplomatic advisor to Emmanuel Macron draws up an uncompromising assessment of France’s weak influence in the region, linked in particular to the unclear management of the crisis in Gaza. According to this diplomat, Paris and its partners in the Old Continent should nevertheless work to contain the hubris of Israel which, incited by its successes against Hamas and Hezbollah, could be tempted to push its advantage too far. As for France, according to him, in the future, it will have “arguments to put forward to play a role” in resolving the crisis. Interview.
L’Express: Despite its diplomatic efforts, what has become of France’s influence in the Middle East?
Bertrand Besancenot: Today, it must be recognized that France’s role in the Middle East (including Lebanon) is marginal. Our influence has diminished considerably. France certainly requested, on September 25, a meeting of the UN Security Council on the situation in this country, and took the initiative – with Washington – to make a declaration, supported by various countries in the region, to demand an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. But Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t care about these kinds of calls.
In the eyes of the Israeli Prime Minister, the only ones who count and who can put pressure on Israel are the Americans. However, he believes that they will not interfere with his current operations in Lebanon. Based on the principle, moreover, that the Iranians want to avoid a regional conflagration, Netanyahu considers that he has a unique window of opportunity until the American presidential election to do what he wants and weaken Hamas as much as possible, Hezbollah, even Iran.
This does not mean that France, which has a historical link with Lebanon, should do nothing. Our Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, went to Beirut to provide humanitarian assistance. We also sent our special envoy, former minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who speaks to all Lebanese political leaders.
Is this loss of influence in the Middle East also explained by the lack of clarity of the French diplomatic line on the conflict in Gaza?
Of course ! The Gaza crisis was mismanaged from the start. First, President Emmanuel Macron did not immediately go to Israel after October 7. Then, when he went there, he made a statement about the need to create an international coalition against Hamas, which was obviously misinterpreted in all Arab capitals. This in fact gave the feeling that we were calling on the international community to join in the strikes on Gaza: a signal blunder.
Since then, despite other declarations to try to rebalance the French position, trying to draw attention to the need for humanitarian corridors, to recall the perspective of the two-state solution (which is France’s traditional position) , we are no longer audible.
Paris is still trying to play a role. But the Israelis don’t listen to us much. And as for the Palestinians, they are disappointed: the management of the conflict in Gaza by the French authorities did not correspond to their expectations, to say the least. While France had traditionally been, particularly under Jacques Chirac, a country which had a different position, recalling that justice had to be done to the Palestinians, our voice no longer carries in the conflict in the Middle East. Today, those who have major cards in the region are the United States. They are the only ones who can put pressure on Israel.
After the explosion at the port of Beirut in 2020, Emmanuel Macron, visiting the site, promised to “launch a new political initiative”. Is the failure total?
One thing is certain, despite French attempts: there is still no Lebanese president. But it is not only France that is failing. The entire quintet which pursued this objective (United States, France, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Qatar) did not succeed. The difference is that France put itself forward with President Macron’s visit to Beirut in August 2020, and that it raised a lot of hopes, which were not followed by effects…
How do you explain Paris’ discreet reaction to the death of Hassan Nasrallahthe leader of Hezbollah?
Notice that the Gulf countries haven’t spoken out much either. Because in reality, these countries which, deep down, do not shed tears over the disappearance of Nasrallah, want to play a role of recourse when it is necessary to find solutions to the conflict.
France, in particular, did not want to shock part of the Lebanese population. As for the Arab countries, they spare the Palestinians – who, given what they are suffering in Gaza, cannot rejoice at the disappearance of the leader of Hezbollah, who put pressure on Israel in solidarity with the population of Gaza – and their public opinions.
Could France really play a mediating role in the future?
At one point or another, since we have maintained contact with Hezbollah, we will have a role to play. Because one day we will have to find a solution for South Lebanon, which will be similar to the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, violated by both parties. Signed in August 2006 to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, it provided for the withdrawal of the Lebanese force beyond the Litani River and, de facto, a kind of demilitarized zone held by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon ( UNIFIL). However, Hezbollah continued to arm itself and use this entire area to store its missiles and rockets. As for the Israelis, they continued to fly over the region.
We can’t deny that the military part of Hezbollah carried out terrorist actions. And at the same time, Hezbollah is a party that represents most of the Shiite community, more than a third of the Lebanese. However, at a given moment, if we want to find a solution, we will necessarily have to make arrangements with this part of the population.
France has arguments to put forward to play a role. She has long been a protector of Lebanon; it has good relations with Egypt, Jordan, with the Gulf countries in general, and it is a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
It can try to be active diplomatically by dialoguing with the Americans, the Israelis, the Palestinians, the Lebanese, and the Gulf countries, to try to ensure that some good can come out of these tragedies. That is to say that extremists of all stripes, those who do not recognize the existence of Israel as well as those who do not recognize the Palestinian identity, be marginalized. An extremely difficult objective to implement.
What can the European Union do?
It is clear that France would have a much more important role if it could bring the European countries with it. But the divisions are today too strong to be able to have any real impact. Europeans can provide humanitarian aid and make declarations to call for restraint or calm, to avoid a regional conflagration. But this will remain rhetoric. They can, however, try to temper a form of Israeli, or even American, hubris, which would prevent them from considering any compromise, particularly on the Palestinian question.
However, if we do not resolve the Palestinian question in a more or less equitable way, after what happened in Gaza, where many people lost a father, a mother, a brother, a sister or a cousin , generations of anti-Israel extremists will emerge. And other October 7s will happen.
And even if the IDF manages to largely weaken Hezbollah, this will not prevent, if an arrangement is not reached, this Lebanese militia from continuing to have certain equipment and guerrillas capable of committing acts of terrorism.
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