In France, after the re-election of President Emmanuel Macron, the legislative elections looming in June could give a majority to one of the opposition parties. Would a change of majority in these legislative elections have a real impact on the country’s foreign policy?
The answer is yes. If President Macron, at the dawn of his second term, were to find himself with a parliamentary majority led by LFI (La France insoumise) of Jean-Luc Mélenchon or the RN (National Rally) of Marine Le Pen, the change in terms of foreign and European policy would be considerable.
Let’s say all the same, and right away, that this prospect does not seem the most likely, because of the majority system with two rounds in each constituency, which could favor the Macronian formation LaREM (La République en Marche).
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And then there are the starting positions of each other, remembering that the absolute majority in the National Assembly is 289 seats. Compared to this figure, the deputies of the RN are only 8 today and those of LFI 17. We see that the road is long and arduous to reach this figure of 289 – even if the current discussions, in particular on the left, suggest a larger coalition.
But in the event – desired all the same by a majority of French people according to the polls – where President Macron were to enter into cohabitation with his radical left or his far right, the consequences would be very real in the foreign domain.
Differences more marked than before
France has known these experiences in the past, François Mitterrand having to live with Jacques Chirac then with Édouard Balladur, before it was Jacques Chirac with Lionel Jospin. Each time, and this would be the case today, we have seen tensions between the Élysée and Matignon during European or international summits, the Prime Minister imposing himself alongside the President, leaving the impression of a France speaking in two voices, sometimes different. It was not good for the country’s image abroad.
In today’s situation, it would be worse, simply because between Macron, Mélenchon and Le Pen, the differences on certain international issues are more marked than during past experiences of cohabitation, whether the European Union, the war in Ukraine, the position vis-à-vis Russia or the United States.
What position vis-à-vis the European Union?
If we only take the European Union, the main file of divergences: Emmanuel Macron is a fervent Europeanist, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, for different reasons, are Eurosceptics.
Madame Le Pen wants, for example, the restoration of national borders, or even a reduction of five billion euros in the French contribution to the European budget. It thus intends to reform the Union from within.
Mr. Mélenchon, he advocates widespread disobedience to European rules to, there too, reshape the current model, which he considers too financial-liberal and, if necessary, brandishes the threat of France leaving the European treaties. A nightmare for Emmanuel Macron and for the EU. It now remains to wait for the verdict of the polls.
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