Russian tanks enter Estonia, Madagascar retakes the Scattered Islands from France, Erdogan’s Turkey attacks the Imia Islands, the Charles de Gaulle sunk by China, Mali falls into the hands of jihadists… With the help of Forty researchers, diplomats, generals and former members of the intelligence services, the Express has developed five credible hypotheses leading to a French military response: dark scenarios that overlap with those on which the French army is already working and on which it is prepared. Check out our long format video on our YouTube channel.
EPISODE 1/5 – March 2026: Putin launches a special operation in Estonia
Today’s episode transports us to April 2027. After two difficult seasons for Malagasy farmers, food riots break out in Antananarivo, capital of Madagascar. Cornered, the Malagasy president refuses to ask for help from France, and instead accepts the outstretched hand of an actor who has been advancing his pawns on the island for already twenty years, China. Beijing then pushes the Malagasy claims on the Scattered Islands, a French territory since colonization. The fatal blow is dealt in August 2028, Madagascar takes back these islands from France. This is a hypothesis leading to a French military response, deemed credible by a panel of experts solicited by L’Express. Dark scenarios that overlap with those on which the French army is already working, and on which it is preparing. Find here the analysis of Lova Rajaoarinelina, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research and former adviser to the President of the National Assembly of Madagascar, and Alexandra Saviana, journalist at the Société de L’Express service.
Picture credits: BERTRAND LANGLOIS / ALEXANDER KAZAKOV / POOL / AFP