France is more prone to global warming than the rest of the world according to a scientific study. Temperatures could rise by 4°C by 2100 due to human activity.
The effects of global warming are seen everywhere, but in France and Europe more than elsewhere. While the planet has gained an average of 1.2°C since the 19th century, temperatures in France have risen by 1.8°C.
And the phenomenon is likely to be confirmed, according to the National Council for Ecological Transition (CNTE). “We are on a trajectory towards 3°C at the global level and therefore for metropolitan France that means +4°C”, specified with theAFP the environmental senator and vice-president of the CNTE, Ronan Dantec, on May 4, 2023.
A figure already put forward by a study published in October 2022 in the scientific journal Earth System Dynamics. Aurélien Ribes, climatologist at the National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM) and co-author of the study, estimates that in France temperatures could increase by 3.8°C in 2100, or around 20% more than the planetary average. .
According to most probable hypotheses, the country could gain between 2.3°C and 5.6°C depending on the level, low or high, of GHG emissions. Results obtained by transposing the calculation method used by the IPCC to draw up planetary estimates on the scale of France. Note that this is the method used by the sixth report of the IPCC, the first to combine simulations and observations.
Almost 100% anthropogenic global warming
Such an alleged increase in temperatures above the global average is all the more worrying because it is almost entirely due to human activities. GHGs actively contribute to the rise in temperature, but the latter is also linked to the reduction in anthropogenic aerosols.
These fine particles emitted by industrial activities and transport have for decades “masked the effects of the increase in GHGs” and “limited the increase in temperature like a parasol effect”, today less present they no longer camouflage the rise in mercury, explained Saïd Qasmi, climatologist researcher at the CNRM, to RTL. Other factors are also at the origin of the phenomenon, in particular the abnormally warm temperature of the Atlantic Ocean which warms the atmosphere above Europe.
Already condemned for “climate inaction”, France was called to order on Wednesday May 10 by the Council of State. The body demanded that the government take “all [les] useful additional measures” to achieve the objectives of national and European climate policy, in particular those concerning the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
France is committed to reducing the share of GHG emissions by 40% compared to 1990 levels by 2030 and to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. But the results are still far from expectations since over the year 2022 GHG emissions have only fallen by 2.5%, according to provisional figures from the High Council for the Climatepublished in April 2023.