The French Ministry of Economy and Finance indicated on Wednesday that it anticipates a public deficit of 5.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024, which will require finding an additional 10 billion euros this year. The goal is a return to 2.9% of GDP in 2027.
3 mins
The high figure for the 2024 deficit, initially forecast at 4.4%, is the consequence of the strong slippage recorded in 2023, where it reached 5.5% of GDP instead of the 4.9% forecast, due to much higher revenues. weaker than hoped, recalled Bercy during the presentation of its new stability program for the France.
In February, to urgently restore the situation, the Minister of the Economy and FinanceBruno Le Maire, had announced ten billion euros in savings on the state budget this year: this is the maximum that could be cut by decree, without having to go through an amending finance bill ( PLFR) in Parliament.
From now on, ten billion additional euros will have to be found this year to stay within the 5.1% deficit, Bercy warned on Wednesday, while the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron and the Prime Minister Gabriel Attal are opposed to a PLFR.
These billions could partially be found in “ fairly significant reserves » of the ministries, said Bercy. But local authorities will also be asked, “ as to other actors and other public authorities » to be « stakeholders in this recovery », Warned the ministry.
The objective of a deficit of 2.9% in 2027
On Wednesday, the government announced that it was still aiming for a return of the deficit to below 3% of GDP in 2027, in accordance with its European commitments. It plans to reach 2.9% of GDP in 2027, going through a deficit of 4.1% of GDP in 2025 then 3.6% in 2026.
This trajectory is ambitious. For ” going from 5.1% to 4.1%, we will have to be hyper-focused, determined and responsible » for the 2025 budget, reacted to AFP the leader of the Modem deputies (center) Jean-Paul Mattei. The latter campaigns for measures of “ tax justice » such as the taxation of share buybacks of large companies, superdividends or for the increase of the “flat tax” (flat rate levy on property income) to 33%.
The executive is considering another path to restore public finances. He still refuses to increase taxes, even if Prime Minister Gabriel Attal launched last week a parliamentary “task force” responsible for making proposals to tax “ annuities » whose concept is still to be defined. The executive is instead betting on a return to growth: Bercy estimates that this should rise to 1% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, citing of the ” signs of recovery “.
Last week, Bruno Le Maire predicted in front of entrepreneurs “ a real powerful economic boost in 2025 and 2026 “.
The government will also have to make new, more drastic savings in the coming years. For 2025, he has already announced 20 billion budget cuts across all three positions (State, Social Security, communities) because restoring public finances and reducing the deficit is imperative in relation to the burden that the French debt will represent at the end of the year. future, boosted by the rise in interest rates over the past two years. According to government forecasts revealed on Wednesday, the debt would vary little between now and 2027 as a percentage of GDP, falling from 112.3% this year to 112%, but the burden itself would soar, from 46.3 billion euros in 2024 to 72.3 billion in 2027.
After the disclosure of these main hypotheses on Wednesday, the Stability program will be presented to the Council of Ministers on April 17, and debated in Parliament on April 29 and 30, announced Budget Minister Thomas Cazenave, and Bruno Le Maire.
Between Emmanuel Macron and Bruno Le Maire, strong tensions over the deficit
First storm warning for the 2027 presidential election? Relations between Emmanuel Macron and his Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire, who readily cultivates his difference, are turning into a storm around budgetary slippage, against the backdrop of the European campaign.
The head of state’s barbs, skillfully distilled in the media, set the scene for each update from the tenant of Bercy on the state of public finances, with the sword of Damocles as a backdrop of possible deterioration. of France’s rating on April 26 by the Moody’s agency.
During a meeting of majority executives on Monday at the Élysée, Emmanuel Macron deplored seeing the government inflict ” budgetary seriousness lessons morning, noon and evening “. “ If we start to lose confidence, it’s over », he launched, according to a participant, in an intervention in the form of an explanation of the text aimed at his big financier.
For the executive, who prefers to highlight the reindustrialization of the country and the employment rate “ pupil », these debates, with “ billions in savings ” make “ fear ” to the French. Coming full circle, the Head of State rejected the idea of a corrective finance bill for 2024, suggested by the Minister of the Economy. This bill is likely to open the way to a motion of censure from the opposition which, if passed – by an absolute majority of deputies – would lead to the resignation of the government.
On the PLFR, it is Bruno Le Maire who “ pushed “, “ some wonder if he is not looking for the motion of censure », sketches an executive from the Renaissance group. If she passed, it could allow her to “ take power » by being appointed at the head of a new government, speculates this same source.