Good news as the coldest months loom: France has the gas infrastructure necessary to heat itself and be in solidarity with its neighbors “whatever the severity of next winter”, estimated this Wednesday, October 23, the managers of the GRTgaz and Teréga gas transmission network. “The French network is able to ensure the necessary supplies to cover consumption and transit needs to Europe, even in the event of a sharp drop in temperatures”, estimate the two main managers in their “gas outlook” for 2024 -2025, very far from the fears of shortages caused by the gas standoff with Russia in the winter of 2022-2023.
To establish this observation, the two companies took into account factors such as “supply flows, the drop in consumption observed in 2023, the consumption of gas-fired power plants, the production of renewable gas, as well as the level of significant filling of storage”. This was 95% on Monday, a level comparable to previous winters “in order to be able to cover the consumption of a cold and late winter”, note the two carriers.
This balance, they note, “is based on sustained imports from Norway, the Netherlands and Spain, on LNG supplies in LNG terminals, on rigorous stock management, as well as on maintaining the energy sobriety at levels comparable to those observed the previous winter.
The safety margin remains low
Since the winter of 2021-2022, despite a 70% drop in Russian gas imports from all sources (gas pipeline and LNG), the European gas system “has managed to adapt to guarantee security of supply” . “Twelve new entry points” for importing gas “have been created in Europe since 2022 (four of which will be put into service by the end of 2024) thanks to the rapid development of floating LNG terminals”, making it possible in particular to bring in LNG from the United States by boat, note the authors of the study.
During the winter of 2023-2024, European solidarity was “strengthened in France, displaying a significant transit towards the east representing a net volume of 83 TWh towards Belgium, Germany and Switzerland”, he said. -we added from the same source.
“In the event of a late cold peak where occasional deficit situations could appear, the safety margin is low, particularly if storage was overloaded at the start of winter,” however note GRTgaz and Teréga, who call for “ preserve storage at the start of winter” and to continue efforts at sobriety.