François Bayrou judged France “close” to a “submersion” migration during an interview on LCI. Immigration does not however represent such a large part of the French population.
Politicians have their eyes on the bill concerning the 2025 budget, desperately awaited by the French, but they cling to another subject placed in the foreground: immigration. The Prime Minister went there from his commentary on the migratory situation in France leading to the ire of the left and the applause of the right and the extreme right. “Foreign contributions are positive for a people, provided they do not exceed a proportion. […] From the moment you have the feeling of a submersion, not to recognize your country, lifestyles or culture, you have rejection, “said François Bayrou on LciMonday January 27. And the head of government added that France is “close” to this tilting.
However, the figures do not reflect the submersion of the French population by immigrants. Out of 68.1 million people living in France in 2023, the share of foreigners amounted to 5.6 million according to the Last immigration report published by the Interior Ministry In the summer of 2024 – Note that 800,000 of them were born in France and can claim French nationality from their majority. France is actually among European countries with the greatest number of foreign inhabitants, behind Germany (12.3 million) and Spain (6.1 million), but compared to its demographic density, foreigners represent only 8.2% of the total population. A rate lower than the average obtained of the 28 countries of the European Union and estimated at 9.2%. It is also much less than other countries whose share of foreign people approaches or exceeds the 15% mark: Germany is 14.4%, Austria at 18.8% or even Malta with 25, 3% of foreigners on its territory. We can also cite the particular case of Luxembourg which has many residents from border countries and where the share of foreigners reaches 47.4%.
What about the number of immigrants who arrive in France each year? The figures ofEurostatused in the report of the Ministry of the Interior, recall that France is the 3rd country in the European Union to welcome the most immigrants: 431,000 people in the year 2022, still behind Germany (2, 1 million) and Spain (1.3 million). But at the same time, the ministry emphasizes that France “is one of the OECD countries in which migratory flows are the most small in proportion to the population”. An observation which therefore invalidates the position of the Prime Minister.
A false impression linked to increasing indicators …
The feeling of migration “submersion” mentioned by François Bayrou could be explained by other more partial and specific data: the increase in the number of titles of residence granted or accepted asylum requests. Regarding residence permits, 326,954 documents were issued to primary arrivals in 2023, or 2.5% more than in 2022: 33% were to foreign students, 28% for family reasons or Still 16% is linked to economic immigration.
Asylum requests also increased by 6.8% compared to the previous year, but this remains less than the European average or the German neighbor and its 28% increase. Asylum seekers come mainly from Afghanistan, Guinea, Turkey, Bangladesh, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Georgia, Sudan, Russia and Sri Lanka. If the share of Afghan people decreased in one year, those of foreigners from Africa increased: an increase of 70% for Guinean people, by 63% for natives of Côte d’Ivoire or even 120% for Foreigners from Sudan.
… and the geographic grouping of foreigners
Another distorted explanation of this too large impression of immigration is based on the geographic distribution of migrants in France. The latter are gathered around large agglomerations like Paris. The departments of Île-de-France are thus part of the regions where the share of immigrants represents more than 10% of the population: more than 20% in Paris and in the Val d’Oise and more than 23% in the Val -de-Marne or the Seine-Saint-Denis. The same goes for the Bouches-du-Rhône with Marseille, the Rhône with Lyon, the Haute-Garonne with Toulouse or the Bas-Rhin with Strasbourg.
From a geographical point of view, it should also be noted the peculiarities of two overseas territories: Mayotte and Guyana. These two departments concentrate a large part of immigration in France, especially because of their border or their proximity to other countries. François Bayrou used Mayotte’s case to justify his speech on the submersion of immigration. On the archipelago, 48% of the inhabitants are foreigners according to an INSEE study dated 2019. The fact remains that outside of these particular cases, immigration represents only a very minority part of the French population.