PARIS- The French, who had just come out of the presidential elections, went to the polls again today, this time for the first round of the general elections, one and a half months later. In the two-round General Elections, in which approximately 48.7 million voters are invited, 577 deputies will be determined to go to the National Assembly.
In France, the voting process for the general elections, which were held so close to each other to be called the “third round of the Presidential elections”, started at 8:00 am. However, the electorate, whose trust in politicians has decreased and who is gradually moving away from politics, does not seem enthusiastic to elect the 577 deputies in the National Assembly. The voter turnout in the elections, in which the polls will close at 18.00 in small provinces and at 20.00 in large provinces, broke a new record.
President Emmanuel Macron voted with his wife Brigitte Macron in the constituency of Touquet at noon. While the latest polls in the country, which has not experienced a serious campaign period, revealed that the public’s turnout was low, the first official participation figures announced at noon confirmed these fears.
According to figures released by the Ministry of Interior at midday, only 18.43 percent of voters at the national level went to the polls. The turnout figure, which decreased slightly in each election, was 19.2 percent in 2017 and around 21 percent in 2012 elections. The lowest participation rate in the country, around 9 percent, was in the poorest suburb of France, Seine Saint Denis.
Will the government get an “absolute majority”?
Another danger revealed by the opinion polls for the ruling party is the possibility of losing an “absolute majority”. The March to the Republic movement LAREM, which was founded around the name of Macron and has still not been able to become a “locally organized party”, is making an effort to remove the “289 deputies” who have an absolute majority in the Parliament, in order to pass the reforms it wants, especially the difficult reform that raises the retirement age.
Although the ruling party ranks first in all polls, NUPES, the “social and ecological new people’s union” movement, which the French left united by making an electoral alliance, seriously threatens the government. Before the elections, the 3 major movements of the left, which suffered a heavy defeat in the presidential elections; The Greens (Les Verts), Communist Party (PCF) and Socialists (PS) with the radical left Indomitable France (LFI), which finished the elections with as high as 20 percent; He joined the electoral alliance under the name “Social and Ecological New People’s Union (Nouvelle Union Populaire ecologique et social-NUPES)”. Nupes, the only different development of the general elections, also managed to stand out in the polls.
Macron’s race against the left union
President Macron, who succeeded in being elected on April 24 by following the strategy of “race against the extreme right” in the presidential elections, based his strategy on “race against the radical left” in the parliamentary elections held today in the first round. Macron and his team tried to get centrist votes, defending the thesis that “radical leftist leader Jean Luc Melenchon and far-right leader Marine Le Pen represent extremists, the only reliable party is LREM”.
During his last election tour in the Tarn region, Macron blamed his fiercest opponent, the leader of the left union, Jean Luc Melenchon, saying, “Extremists, who promise to change the great historical choices of our nation, propose to add crisis to the crisis. I call on everyone who does not want this to support us with a strong and clear majority.” said. Responding to Macron’s words, Melenchon said, “It is not the President’s role to campaign for the general elections. This is the job of the Prime Minister’s friends from the party who are unable to campaign.”
In their pre-election analysis, the country’s two biggest newspapers, Le Monde and Le Figaro, spoke of the “risk of not getting an absolute majority” that Macron would need to pass the reforms he wanted, especially the reform that raised the retirement age. Both newspapers wrote that “under normal circumstances, Macron would finish first in the elections, but this time the absolute majority is not certain”.
The latest survey for Le Monde by the Ipsos-Sopra company earlier this week confirms this trend. Ipsos’ survey shows that in the first round of elections, LREM is ahead with 28 percent, while the leftist unity movement NUPES is right behind the ruling party with 27 percent. The far-right National Integration (RN) movement ranks third with 21 percent.
15 Ministers in the election exam
15 ministers in the government are going through an important test as a candidate for parliament. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and several key ministers will have to leave the government if they fail to win in the general election. It may also be possible for Macron to form a new government or make a large-scale revision in the government according to the election results.
President Macron established his new party in 2017 and managed to win 313 deputies in the first general elections he entered right after he was elected president. By making an alliance with the center party MODEM, he added 47 more deputies to the ruling power and gained the majority in the National Assembly.
Will the call to “Choose me Prime Minister” work?
The NUPES Unity movement, which was founded with the slogan “Choose me as Prime Minister” by Jean Luc Melenchon, who received 20 percent of the votes in the presidential elections, plans to impose on Macron, who is preparing to bring liberal reforms by winning the parliamentary elections, to choose the Prime Minister from the left. The ruling party LREM, together with the MODEM, Agir and Horizon movements that support the government, are working to get 289 seats for the absolute majority required to take decisions in the Parliament.
While the leader of the left union, Melenchon, promised to raise the minimum wage to 1,500 euros and lower the retirement age to 60, the only guarantee for President Macron’s failure to implement the reform, which envisages raising the retirement age to 65, is that a left-wing Prime Minister comes to power. argues.
In addition to the Yellow Vests actions, the changing balances after the COVID and the Ukraine war, the alliances between the two rounds or the local balances are among the factors that increase the uncertainty. Candidates who will receive more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round of the elections, which will be held next Sunday, will be elected directly. However, the 2 candidates who could not achieve this and the 2 candidates who came first or the candidates who exceeded the 12.5 percent threshold will enter the race with 2, 3 or even 4 in the second round.