Prepare for the worst. What if the Earth warmed up by 4 degrees, despite the efforts undertaken to limit climate change, and decarbonize our production methods? A distressing vision of the future, which if it is not a prophecy – there is still a lot to do to reverse the trend -, deserves to be guarded against.
If until now this scenario was not taken into account in France, whose forecasts stopped at +3°C, the Ministry of Ecology decided to reverse the trend, at the beginning of the year, by asking that the hypothesis of +4°C be integrated into the country’s adaptation strategy, the first elements of which have just been unveiled on Sunday, in The Sunday newspaper (JDD).
For this scenario, which if it is now taken into account remains “pessimistic” according to Christophe Béchu, the Minister of Ecological Transition, France is preparing for heat waves which could last up to two months. Certain particularly exposed areas (Mediterranean arc, Rhône corridor, Garonne valley) could experience up to 90 tropical nights per year, when the temperature does not drop below 20 degrees.
The government also expects more intense extreme rains, especially over a large northern half, and drought episodes lasting more than a month in the summer in the south and west. Water shortages, already a problem at present, will multiply with “strong tensions on agriculture and forestry” and “almost all French glaciers will have disappeared”.
Infrastructure, local authorities, and the private sector
Faced with this nightmare, the French government, in addition to the measures already in place (Water Plan, Green Fund, etc.), are proposing three new projects. “First, public services and infrastructure: our roads, our rail network, our telecommunications infrastructure, etc., must be resilient to the new climate deal,” the minister told JDD.
The second project will be a support plan for local authorities, which remains to be detailed at present, while the third will launch vulnerability studies to adapt economic activity. “The adaptation measures to be put in place today, whatever the adaptation trajectory set, represent at least an additional 2.3 billion euros per year”, already warns the government.
The increase in floods will have a “strong impact” on insurance, land use planning and transport. Finally, “significant risks to all buildings, transport infrastructure and energy, water and telecommunications networks” are to be expected with “marked effects on coastal areas (erosion of the coastline, marine flooding )”.
A decline in GDP
At +4°C, i.e. +3°C in the world given France’s hypersensitivity to global warming, the drop in gross domestic product (GDP) would be between 6.5% and 13.1%, estimates the reinsurance giant Swiss Re. On the insurance side, the damage could increase by 30% by 2050. Agricultural crop losses of 7.4% for wheat and 9.5% for barley are expected in 2050 , and for the forest, the yield would drop between 4.6% and 11.6% for the pine.
These elements remain preliminary for the moment. Tuesday will be launched a public consultation to define the reference warming trajectory for the adaptation of France (TRACC). The results are expected by the end of the summer. This document will then serve as a reference for the final version of the French adaptation plan, which will only be fully unveiled this summer.