The difference of three percentage points is within the margin of error of 3.4 percent. In a survey from September, however, Donald Trump won by four percentage points, which means that it can be stated that Trump received reduced support in Iowa, a state he could count on winning until now.
– This is a result that creates concern within the Republicans. In particular, older women and women with no party affiliation seem to have moved away from Trump compared to previous polls in the Des Moines Register. It is potentially bad news for Trump’s chances of winning also in the neighboring state of Wisconsin, says Fouad Youcefi, SVT’s USA correspondent, adding:
– But the results should be interpreted cautiously. Donald Trump leads in all other polls from Iowa, and every polling institute from time to time has polls that are significantly out of line with reality. If that was the case with this one, we’ll see first come Election Day in Iowa.
“Signs of a strong final sprint”
At the same time, a “mega-survey” by the British MRP of 31,000 voters shows that Harris has a slight advantage before the election. However, several other American polling institutes give Trump a slight advantage.
According to Youcefi, there are more signs of a strong final sprint for Harris.
– In several of the wave master states, Harris has gone strong in the last week. When I talk to people in her campaign, they are cautiously optimistic. But it’s still so even in so many states that it’s incredibly hard to say how it will end.