Forests are becoming less and less resilient

Forests are becoming less and less resilient

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[EN VIDÉO] Our forests in timelapse thanks to Google Earth
See how we’ve changed our planet’s forests since 1984 with a global time-lapse video.

41 million square kilometres: this is the area of earth that the forests still cover. That is about 30% of the emerged surfaces. But in recent decades, forests have been suffering. Of the storms more and more violent, agents pathogens increasingly numerous and virulent, extraordinary forest firesoperations of deforestation. Will they be able to resist, to recover from all these disturbances, to get up again?

This is the question asked by a international team of researchers. Because forests play a key role in regulating the climate. They thus absorb about a third of our emissions of carbon. They also participate in the regulation of water flows, the protection of soils and the conservation of biodiversity. Assess their resilience therefore seems particularly important.

Studies have already shown that rising temperatures and falling humidity, all under the effect of anthropogenic climate change, could make it difficult for some forests to survive. This time, the researchers went a step further. They wondered if these upheavals could degrade the ability of forests to withstand more ad hoc attacks. Of type floodspests, droughts or contamination. Natural as well as anthropogenic attacks.

The researchers worked on an astronomical amount of satellite data. Data collected over twenty years, between 2000 and 2020. It was a machine learning algorithm that helped them sift through this data.

Climate change puts forests to the test

The resilience of a forest, researchers have defined it as its ability to recover after a disruptive event. How do you know if this is the case or not? According to them, when the forest turns into something else — like the savannah — when it changes state, it is a sign that the loss of resilience is complete, that the tipping point has been reached. . Before that, the forest begins to lose productivity.

A few years ago already, Colorado State University researchers (United States) had studied how climate change affects the regeneration of trees after a fire of forest. They had worked on 1,500 sites across five states in the United States. They had observed a significant decrease in tree regeneration between the end of the 20the century and the beginning of the XXIe century. In just over twenty years, forests seemed to be becoming less resilient to fires. More recently, studies revealed that the mortality rate of trees in Europe was skyrocketing or that the Amazon forest was close to a point of no return.

This time, the results of the planet-wide analysis show that more than half of all the world’s forests — whether managed or “intact” — show signs of diminishing resilience. These include tropical, arid and temperate forests. The reason is both increasingly frequent water limitations and climate variability.

However, the global warming seems to have a positive effect on the resilience of some trees. Those of boreal forestsin the latitudes northern regions, apparently benefit from warming and a certain “fertilization” by our carbon dioxide emissions (CO2).

Disturbing work at a time when some are relying on carbon sink what forests do to help us fight global warming. But other studies will have to confirm this. In the meantime, the researchers suggest that mitigating the impact of anthropogenic climate change on forest resilience will require promoting tree species diversity in the future.

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