The battles near Avdijivka are Russia’s first major offensive operation of the winter. So far, Russia’s achievements in the region have remained rather meager.
US magazine Forbes says Russia has lost more than 13,000 soldiers in eastern Ukraine’s Avdijivka alone since it began fighting to capture the city in October. Ukrainian losses are believed to be much lower, perhaps in the order of a few thousand soldiers.
The fighting around the city is still going on. Russia’s achievements in the region have so far remained quite meager.
According to Forbes, Russia is trying to drag Ukraine into the grueling war of consumption, because it knows that it can recruit new troops and produce new weapons more efficiently than Ukraine.
However, the battle for control of the small eastern Ukrainian city is proving to be a nightmare for the Kremlin.
According to Forbes, in addition to thousands of soldiers, Russia has lost a total of at least 411 tanks, combat vehicles and heavy artillery in the battles around Avdijivka.
The strength of the Russian army in Ukraine is estimated to be at least 400,000 soldiers. Forbes estimates that the country’s losses in Avdijivka are, however, of such a magnitude that even Russia cannot afford them indefinitely.
Merciless conditions
Due to heavy losses, Russia has repeatedly had to change its tactics in Avdijivka.
In October, Russia attacked mainly with tanks and other mechanized forces. When the vehicle advance was halted by Ukrainian mines, drones and artillery fire, Russia sought to advance with infantry. This too turned out to be a mistake and led to huge losses for Russia.
After failed attempts to advance, Russia has tried to attack Ukraine’s supply links with drones equipped with explosives. This, too, has not brought Russia the result it hoped for.
The latest humiliation was seen last Friday, when the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi made a surprise visit to a city in Russia’s interest.
Russia’s most recent offensive attempts have consisted of combinations of armored vehicles and infantry.
In the critically important area of Stepove, north of Avdijivka, the conditions are merciless for the Russians, according to Forbes. According to the magazine, the American Bradley battle tanks and the Leopard 2 battle tanks donated by the EU countries stop the Russians time and time again in the open fields.
Russia’s strategy does not work
Forbes estimates that Russia’s current war strategy is not profitable for it. According to the magazine, Russia is capable of building and refurbishing around 1,500 tanks and around 2,000 combat vehicles per year.
Due to the losses already suffered in 2022, the magazine estimates that Russia can afford to lose around 50 tanks per month without depleting its stocks. The losses suffered now in Avdijivka are intolerable for Russia.
Nor can Russia afford to lose soldiers at the same rate. The Kremlin has recruited 300,000 soldiers this year. Due to the threat of protests and the lack of workers in certain sectors, it has not started a new business proposal.
Forbes estimates that Russia has so far lost more than 315,000 soldiers in the war of aggression. According to the US think tank RAND Corporation, heavy crew losses are for Russia with a population of 143 million “a ticking time bomb“.
The next Bahmut from Avdijivka?
Avdijivka is located approximately 15 kilometers north of the large city of Donetsk, which came under the control of the Russian separatist regime in 2014. About 30,000 inhabitants lived in the city before the war.
The battles near Avdijivka are Russia’s first major offensive operation of the winter. By taking over the city, Russia is believed to be trying to drive the Ukrainians further away from Donetsk.
Last winter, Russia, under the leadership of the Wagner mercenary company, sought to occupy the city of Bahmut for more than seven months. Although Russia managed to take control of the almost completely ruined city in May, it is believed to have lost several in the fighting according to estimates 60,000 to 80,000 troops.